Related papers: Household epidemic models revisited
Individuals socio-demographic and economic characteristics crucially shape the spread of an epidemic by largely determining the exposure level to the virus and the severity of the disease for those who got infected. While the complex…
Despite being similar in structure, functioning, and size viral pathogens enjoy very different mostly well-defined ways of life. They occupy their hosts for a few days (influenza), for a few weeks (measles), or even lifelong (HCV), which…
During the COVID-19 crisis, policymakers have implemented "social bubble" merging strategies, which allowed people from different households to meet and interact. Although these measures can mitigate the negative effects of extreme…
The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
We study the spread of stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemics in two types of structured populations, both consisting of schools and households. In each of the types, every individual is part of one school…
Social interactions are stratified in multiple contexts and are subject to complex temporal dynamics. The systematic study of these two features of social systems has started only very recently mainly thanks to the development of multiplex…
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
In the real world, many complex systems interact with other systems. In addition, the intra- or inter-systems for the spread of information about infectious diseases and the transmission of infectious diseases are often not random, but with…
We study the effects of switching social contacts as a strategy to control epidemic outbreaks. Connections between susceptible and infective individuals can be broken by either individual, and then reconnected to a randomly chosen member of…
Extreme public health interventions play a critical role in mitigating the local and global prevalence and pandemic potential of COVID-19. Here, we use population size for pathogen transmission to measure the intensity of public health…
We analyse a stochastic SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of…
Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
Although suppressing the spread of a disease is usually achieved by investing in public resources, in the real world only a small percentage of the population have access to government assistance when there is an outbreak, and most must…
We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted…
Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…
An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…