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This study introduces a novel forecasting strategy that leverages the power of fractional differencing (FD) to capture both short- and long-term dependencies in time series data. Unlike traditional integer differencing methods, FD preserves…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Sarit Maitra , Vivek Mishra , Srashti Dwivedi , Sukanya Kundu , Goutam Kumar Kundu

Foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a promising approach for time series forecasting. While effective, FMs typically remain fixed during deployment due to the high computational costs of learning them online. Consequently, deployed FMs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Thomas L. Lee , William Toner , Rajkarn Singh , Artjom Joosen , Martin Asenov

Forecasting long-term time series in IoT environments remains a significant challenge due to the non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics of sensor signals. Furthermore, error accumulation causes a decrease in forecast quality when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Qianyang Li , Xingjun Zhang , Peng Tao , Shaoxun Wang , Yancheng Pan , Jia Wei

Multivariate time series forecasting has been widely used in various practical scenarios. Recently, Transformer-based models have shown significant potential in forecasting tasks due to the capture of long-range dependencies. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Zhe Li , Zhongwen Rao , Lujia Pan , Zenglin Xu

Transformer-based architectures achieved breakthrough performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet they remain inferior to simpler linear baselines in multivariate long-term forecasting. To better understand this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Romain Ilbert , Ambroise Odonnat , Vasilii Feofanov , Aladin Virmaux , Giuseppe Paolo , Themis Palpanas , Ievgen Redko

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Qingxiang Liu , Xu Liu , Chenghao Liu , Qingsong Wen , Yuxuan Liang

Multivariate time series forecasting poses an ongoing challenge across various disciplines. Time series data often exhibit diverse intra-series and inter-series correlations, contributing to intricate and interwoven dependencies that have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Wanlin Cai , Yuxuan Liang , Xianggen Liu , Jianshuai Feng , Yuankai Wu

The Transformer model has shown leading performance in time series forecasting. Nevertheless, in some complex scenarios, it tends to learn low-frequency features in the data and overlook high-frequency features, showing a frequency bias.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Xihao Piao , Zheng Chen , Taichi Murayama , Yasuko Matsubara , Yasushi Sakurai

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-29 Bryan Lim , Sercan O. Arik , Nicolas Loeff , Tomas Pfister

Electricity load forecasting enables the grid operators to optimally implement the smart grid's most essential features such as demand response and energy efficiency. Electricity demand profiles can vary drastically from one region to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-15 Abdul Wahab , Muhammad Anas Tahir , Naveed Iqbal , Faisal Shafait , Syed Muhammad Raza Kazmi

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a crucial task in various domains, yet existing TSF models rely heavily on high-quality data and insufficiently exploit all available data. This paper explores a novel self-supervised approach to re-label…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Yuxuan Yang , Dalin Zhang , Yuxuan Liang , Hua Lu , Gang Chen , Huan Li

Multivariate time series forecasting is crucial across various industries, where accurate extraction of complex periodic and trend components can significantly enhance prediction performance. However, existing models often struggle to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Yulong Wang , Yushuo Liu , Xiaoyi Duan , Kai Wang

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is challenging as heterogeneous subsequence anomalies may occur. Reconstruction-based methods, which focus on learning normal patterns in the frequency domain to detect diverse abnormal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-09 Xingjian Wu , Xiangfei Qiu , Zhengyu Li , Yihang Wang , Jilin Hu , Chenjuan Guo , Hui Xiong , Bin Yang

Machine learning for early syndrome diagnosis aims to solve the intricate task of predicting a ground truth label that most often is the outcome (effect) of a medical consensus definition applied to observed clinical measurements (causes),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Michael Staniek , Marius Fracarolli , Michael Hagmann , Stefan Riezler

Existing stereo matching networks typically rely on either cost-volume construction based on 3D convolutions or deformation methods based on iterative optimization. The former incurs significant computational overhead during cost…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Ao Xu , Rujin Zhao , Xiong Xu , Boceng Huang , Yujia Jia , Hongfeng Long , Fuxuan Chen , Zilong Cao , Fangyuan Chen

With the development of Artificial Intelligence, numerous real-world tasks have been accomplished using technology integrated with deep learning. To achieve optimal performance, deep neural networks typically require large volumes of data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-09 Yuren Zhang , Zhongnan Pu , Lei Jing

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is a critical task across diverse domains. Despite significant advancements in LTSF research, we identify a performance bottleneck in existing LTSF methods caused by the inadequate modeling of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Qi Xiong , Kai Tang , Minbo Ma , Ji Zhang , Jie Xu , Tianrui Li

Transformer-based time series foundation models face a fundamental trade-off in choice of tokenization: point-wise embeddings preserve temporal fidelity but scale poorly with sequence length, whereas fixed-length patching improves…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Sravan Kumar Ankireddy , Nikita Seleznev , Nam H. Nguyen , Yulun Wu , Senthil Kumar , Furong Huang , C. Bayan Bruss

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) represents a critical frontier in time series analysis, characterized by extensive input sequences, as opposed to the shorter spans typical of traditional approaches. While longer sequences…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Jinliang Deng , Feiyang Ye , Du Yin , Xuan Song , Ivor W. Tsang , Hui Xiong

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-06 Jiecheng Lu , Xu Han , Shihao Yang