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Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) have been used to formulate many decision-making problems in science and engineering. The objective is to synthesize the best decision (action selection) policies to maximize expected rewards (or minimize…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Mahmoud El Chamie , Behcet Acikmese

Partially Observable Monte Carlo Planning (POMCP) is an efficient solver for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). It allows scaling to large state spaces by computing an approximation of the optimal policy locally and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Giulio Mazzi , Daniele Meli , Alberto Castellini , Alessandro Farinelli

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is widely used in nonlinear state-space systems, but its performance often suffers from poorly approximated proposal and state-transition distributions. This work introduces a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Wessel L. van Nierop , Nir Shlezinger , Ruud J. G. van Sloun

It is well known that for any finite state Markov decision process (MDP) there is a memoryless deterministic policy that maximizes the expected reward. For partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), optimal memoryless policies…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-02-16 Guido Montufar , Keyan Ghazi-Zahedi , Nihat Ay

Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-29 Paul Fearnhead , Joris Bierkens , Murray Pollock , Gareth O Roberts

Random sampling of graph partitions under constraints has become a popular tool for evaluating legislative redistricting plans. Analysts detect partisan gerrymandering by comparing a proposed redistricting plan with an ensemble of sampled…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-09 Cory McCartan , Kosuke Imai

We consider the problem of finding the best memoryless stochastic policy for an infinite-horizon partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) with finite state and action spaces with respect to either the discounted or mean reward…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-05-02 Johannes Müller , Guido Montúfar

We study model-based learning of finite-window policies in tabular partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). A common approach to learning under partial observability is to approximate unbounded history dependencies using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Philip Jordan , Maryam Kamgarpour

In many practical settings control decisions must be made under partial/imperfect information about the evolution of a relevant state variable. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) is a relatively well-developed framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Yanling Chang , Alfredo Garcia , Zhide Wang , Lu Sun

We study the $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-PAC policy identification problem in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes. Existing approaches provide finite-time guarantees for approximate settings ($\varepsilon>0$) but suffer from high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Cyrille Kone , Kevin Jamieson

Most exact algorithms for general partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) use a form of dynamic programming in which a piecewise-linear and convex representation of one value function is transformed into another. We examine…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Anthony R. Cassandra , Michael L. Littman , Nevin Lianwen Zhang

This paper presents the first ever approach for solving \emph{continuous-observation} Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs) and their semi-Markovian counterparts, Dec-POSMDPs. This contribution is…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2017-03-17 Shayegan Omidshafiei , Christopher Amato , Miao Liu , Michael Everett , Jonathan P. How , John Vian

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide an elegant mathematical framework for modeling complex decision and planning problems in stochastic domains in which states of the system are observable only indirectly, via a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-02 M. Hauskrecht

We propose a new framework for how to use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGM). Via a sequential decomposition of the PGM we find a sequence of auxiliary distributions defined on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-07 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Based on the principles of importance sampling and resampling, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) encompasses a large set of powerful techniques dealing with complex stochastic dynamic systems. Many of these systems possess strong memory, with…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-22 Ming Lin , Rong Chen , Jun S. Liu

This paper proposes Partially Observable Reference Policy Programming, a novel anytime online approximate POMDP solver which samples meaningful future histories very deeply while simultaneously forcing a gradual policy update. We provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Edward Kim , Hanna Kurniawati

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 James Cuin , Davide Carbone , Yanbo Tang , O. Deniz Akyildiz

We cast episodic Markov decision process (MDP) planning as Bayesian inference over policies. A policy is treated as the latent variable and is assigned an unnormalized probability of optimality that is monotone in its expected return,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 David Tolpin

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a modeling framework for autonomous decision making under uncertainty and imperfect sensing, e.g. robot manipulation and self-driving cars. However, optimal control of POMDPs…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Rangoli Sharan , Joel W. Burdick