Related papers: Exponential moments for Hawkes processes under min…
Many fits of Hawkes processes to financial data look rather good but most of them are not statistically significant. This raises the question of what part of market dynamics this model is able to account for exactly. We document the…
We consider a system of $N$ Hawkes processes and observe the actions of a subpopulation of size $K \le N$ up to time $t$, where $K$ is large. The influence relationships between each pair of individuals are modeled by i.i.d.Bernoulli($p$)…
We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…
This paper proves new results on spectral and scattering theory for matrix-valued Schr\"odinger operators on the discrete line with non-compactly supported perturbations whose first moments are assumed to exist. In particular, a Levinson…
We consider the problem of learning the network of mutual excitations (i.e., the dependency graph) in a non-stationary, multivariate Hawkes process. We consider a general setting where baseline rates at each node are time-varying and delay…
We give sufficient criteria for the Dol\'eans-Dade exponential of a stochastic integral with respect to a counting process local martingale to be a true martingale. The criteria are adapted particularly to the case of counting processes and…
We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…
Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…
We establish sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the existence and exponential ergodicity of the Q-process, the process…
Linear multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a fundamental class of point processes with self-excitation. When estimating parameters for these processes, a difficulty is that the two main error functionals, the log-likelihood and the…
This paper focuses on limit theorems for linear Hawkes processes with random marks. We prove a large deviation principle, which answers the question raised by Bordenave and Torrisi. A central limit theorem is also obtained. We conclude with…
We obtain exponential moment asymptotics for the Bessel point process. As a direct consequence, we improve on the asymptotics for the expectation and variance of the associated counting function, and establish several central limit…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
In this article, we fill a gap in the literature on Hawkes processes. In particular, we derive a CLT for a non linear compound marked Hawkes process. We also provide an upper bound on the convergence rate using the functional 1-Wasserstein…
We extend the standard semiclassical theory of Excited-State Quantum Phase Transitions (ESQPTs), based on a classification of stationary points in the classical Hamiltonian, to constrained systems. We adopt the method of Lagrange…
We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…
We provide a new proof of the existence of Gibbs point processes with infinite range interactions, based on the compactness of entropy levels. Our main existence theorem holds under two assumptions. The first one is the standard stability…
In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of nearly unstable Hawkes processes whose regression kernel has $L^1$ norm strictly greater than one and close to one as time goes to infinity. We find that,the scaling size determines…
The Hawkes process is a self-exciting sample point process. It has wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. With the development of storage technology, data-driven models are attracting…
Hawkes process (HP) is a point process with a conditionally dependent intensity function. This paper defines the tempered fractional Hawkes process (TFHP) by time-changing the HP with an inverse tempered stable subordinator. We obtained…