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Causal discovery is at the core of human cognition. It enables us to reason about the environment and make counterfactual predictions about unseen scenarios that can vastly differ from our previous experiences. We consider the task of…
We show that infinite divisibility of a trading commodity leads to a self-sustained price bubble when traders use adaptive investment strategies. The adaptive strategy can be viewed as a psychological response of a trader to the situation…
We propose an informal test for stationarity in a time series which checks for the compatibility of nonlinear approximations to the dynamics made in different segments of the sequence. The segments are compared directly, rather than via…
The non-stationary dynamics of a bouncing ball, comprising of both periodic as well as chaotic behavior, is studied through wavelet transform. The multi-scale characterization of the time series displays clear signature of self-similarity,…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of a finite number of spherical bubbles in a compressible fluid within a bounded open domain of R 3 . The fluid-bubble interaction is described by a system of nonlinear partial differential equations…
Stochastic motion of particles in a highly unstable potential generates a number of diverging trajectories leading to undefined statistical moments of the particle position. This makes experiments challenging and breaks down a standard…
A probabilistic model describes a system in its observational state. In many situations, however, we are interested in the system's response under interventions. The class of structural causal models provides a language that allows us to…
In this paper, we develop two families of sequential monitoring procedure to (timely) detect changes in a GARCH(1,1) model. Whilst our methodologies can be applied for the general analysis of changepoints in GARCH(1,1) sequences, they are…
The non-linear dynamics of driven oscillations in the size of a spherical bubble are mapped to the dynamics of a Newtonian particle in a potential within the incompressible liquid regime. The compressible liquid regime, which is important…
In this paper, we present a change point detection method for detecting change points in multivariate nonstationary wind speed time series. The change point method identifies changes in the covariance structure and decomposes the…
A large number (~10,000) of uniform stainless steel balls comprising less than one layer coverage on a vertically shaken plate provides a rich system for the study of excited granular media. Viewed from above, the horizontal motion in the…
In the picture of eternal inflation as driven by a scalar potential with multiple minima, our observable universe resides inside one of many bubbles formed from transitions out of a false vacuum. These bubbles necessarily collide, upsetting…
We investigate the transient bubbles that spontaneously appear in a simple liquid using molecular simulations. The objective is to deduce the free-energy of formation of the bubbles $W(s)$ from the bubble size distribution $p(s)$ through…
Experiments have not only revealed the remarkably long lifetime of nanobubbles, but also demonstrated the diffusive instability of bubbles above micrometers, thus a full-scale physical understanding on the stability of bubbles is in urgent…
We introduce a new diffusion process Xt to describe asset prices within an economic bubble cycle. The main feature of the process, which differs from existing models, is the drift term where a mean-reversion is taken based on an exponential…
Event datasets in the financial domain are often constructed based on actual application scenarios, and their event types are weakly reusable due to scenario constraints; at the same time, the massive and diverse new financial big data…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of cylindrical armoured bubbles excited by mechanical vibrations. A step by step transition from cylindrical to spherical shape is reported as the intensity of the vibration is increased, leading to a…
The beam-plasma instability, i.e. the response of the plasma bulk to the injection of supra thermal charged-particle beams, results to be appropriately characterized by a long-range interaction system. This physical system hosts a number of…
This fluid dynamics video was submitted to the Gallery of Fluid Motion for the 2009 APS Division of Fluid Dynamics Meeting in Minneapolis, Minnesota. In this video we show some results from a simple experiment where air was injected by a…