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Mechanistic interpretability aims to understand how neural networks generalize beyond their training data by reverse-engineering their internal structures. We introduce patterning as the dual problem: given a desired form of generalization,…

As wildfires are expected to become more frequent and severe, improved prediction models are vital to mitigating risk and allocating resources. With remote sensing data, valuable spatiotemporal statistical models can be created and used for…

In this paper, we address the critical need for interpretable and uncertainty-aware machine learning models in the context of online learning for high-risk industries, particularly cyber-security. While deep learning and other complex…

With the deterioration of climate, the phenomenon of rain-induced flooding has become frequent. To mitigate its impact, recent works adopt convolutional neural network or its variants to predict the floods. However, these methods directly…

Despite achieving excellent performance on benchmarks, deep neural networks often underperform in real-world deployment due to sensitivity to minor, often imperceptible shifts in input data, known as distributional shifts. These shifts are…

When performing predictions that use Machine Learning (ML), we are mainly interested in performance and interpretability. This generates a natural trade-off, where complex models generally have higher skills but are harder to explain and…

Unscheduled power disturbances cause severe consequences both for customers and grid operators. To defend against such events, it is necessary to identify the causes of interruptions in the power distribution network. In this work, we focus…

Developing methods to predict disastrous natural phenomena is more important than ever, and tornadoes are among the most dangerous ones in nature. Due to the unpredictability of the weather, counteracting them is not an easy task and today…

Short- or mid-term rainfall forecasting is a major task with several environmental applications such as agricultural management or flood risk monitoring. Existing data-driven approaches, especially deep learning models, have shown…

Storm surge and waves are responsible for a substantial portion of tropical and extratropical cyclones-related damages. While high-fidelity numerical models have significantly advanced the simulation accuracy of storm surge and waves, they…

In an era of escalating climate change, urban flooding has emerged as a critical challenge for sustainable cities, threatening lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Traditional flood detection methods are constrained by their reliance on…

Natural disasters ravage the world's cities, valleys, and shores on a regular basis. Deploying precise and efficient computational mechanisms for assessing infrastructure damage is essential to channel resources and minimize the loss of…

Robust hydrological simulation is key for sustainable development, water management strategies, and climate change adaptation. In recent years, deep learning methods have been demonstrated to outperform mechanistic models at the task of…

Advances in deep learning methods for weather forecasting are creating opportunities to computationally explore the potential for steering or control of extreme weather trajectories for societal risk reduction. We present initial…

Accurate forecasting is critical for reliable power grid operations, particularly as the share of renewable generation, such as wind and solar, continues to grow. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability in renewable generation,…

Short-term forecasting models typically assume the availability of input data (features) when they are deployed and in use. However, equipment failures, disruptions, cyberattacks, may lead to missing features when such models are used…

Unobserved confounding prevents standard covariate adjustment from identifying causal response functions in observational studies. Proxy causal learning addresses this problem through bridge equations involving treatment- and…

Survival random forest is a popular machine learning tool for modeling censored survival data. However, there is currently no statistically valid and computationally feasible approach for estimating its confidence band. This paper proposes…

Prediction of dynamic environmental variables in unmonitored sites remains a long-standing challenge for water resources science. The majority of the world's freshwater resources have inadequate monitoring of critical environmental…

Unmeasured confounding and selection bias are often of concern in observational studies and may invalidate a causal analysis if not appropriately accounted for. Under outcome-dependent sampling, a latent factor that has causal effects on…