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This paper introduces WeatherFormer, a transformer encoder-based model designed to learn robust weather features from minimal observations. It addresses the challenge of modeling complex weather dynamics from small datasets, a bottleneck…

Climate simulations, at all grid resolutions, rely on approximations that encapsulate the forcing due to unresolved processes on resolved variables, known as parameterizations. Parameterizations often lead to inaccuracies in climate models,…

Deep learning is revolutionizing weather forecasting, with new data-driven models achieving accuracy on par with operational physical models for medium-term predictions. However, these models often lack interpretability, making their…

Operational meteorological forecasting has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recently, this landscape has faced disruption by the advent of data-driven artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather models,…

Numerical weather predictions (NWP) are systematically subject to errors due to the deterministic solutions used by numerical models to simulate the atmosphere. Statistical postprocessing techniques are widely used nowadays for NWP…

Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…

Weather forecasting is a vitally important tool for tasks ranging from planning day to day activities to disaster response planning. However, modeling weather has proven to be challenging task due to its chaotic and unpredictable nature.…

Nowadays model uncertainty has become one of the most important problems in both academia and industry. In this paper, we mainly consider the scenario in which we have a common model set used for model averaging instead of selecting a…

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful tools for various computer vision tasks, yet they often struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification - a critical requirement for real-world applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are…

With a warming planet, tropical regions are expected to experience the brunt of climate change, with more intense and more volatile rainfall events. Currently, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are known to struggle…

The prediction of future climate scenarios under anthropogenic forcing is critical to understand climate change and to assess the impact of potentially counter-acting technologies. Machine learning and hybrid techniques for this prediction…

Transfer learning is beneficial by allowing the expressive features of models pretrained on large-scale datasets to be finetuned for the target task of smaller, more domain-specific datasets. However, there is a concern that these…

Post-processing typically takes the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and applies linear statistical techniques to produce improve localized forecasts, by including additional observations, or determining systematic…

Global deep-learning weather prediction models have recently been shown to produce forecasts that rival those from physics-based models run at operational centers. It is unclear whether these models have encoded atmospheric dynamics, or…

We explore the potential of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNNs) for emulating cloud superparameterization in realistic geography, using offline fits to data from the Super Parameterized Community Atmospheric Model. To identify the…

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables,…

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a…

Forecasting irregular time series presents significant challenges due to two key issues: the vulnerability of models to mean regression, driven by the noisy and complex nature of the data, and the limitations of traditional error-based…

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…

Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasting is vital for decision-making in agriculture, energy production, and emergency management. However, it remains a challenging and underexplored problem due to the chaotic nature of the…