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Marginal structural models are a popular tool for investigating the effects of time-varying treatments, but they require an assumption of no unobserved confounders between the treatment and outcome. With observational data, this assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Matthew Blackwell , Soichiro Yamauchi

We study how to extend the use of the diffusion model to answer the causal question from the observational data under the existence of unmeasured confounders. In Pearl's framework of using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to capture the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Tatsuhiro Shimizu

An observational study may be biased for estimating causal effects by failing to control for unmeasured confounders. This paper proposes a new quantity called the "sensitivity value", which is defined as the minimum strength of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-24 Qingyuan Zhao

Traditional recommender systems aim to estimate a user's rating to an item based on observed ratings from the population. As with all observational studies, hidden confounders, which are factors that affect both item exposures and user…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Yaochen Zhu , Jing Yi , Jiayi Xie , Zhenzhong Chen

Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…

Over the past few decades, addressing "spatial confounding" has become a major topic in spatial statistics. However, the literature has provided conflicting definitions, and many proposed solutions are tied to specific analysis models and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-14 Brian Gilbert , Abhirup Datta , Joan A. Casey , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Jianqiao Mao , Max A. Little

Controlled Direct Effect (CDE) is one of the causal estimands used to evaluate both exposure and mediation effects on an outcome. When there are unmeasured confounders existing between the mediator and the outcome, the ordinary…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Shunichiro Orihara , Shinpei Imori , Kosuke Morikawa , Atsushi Goto , Masataka Taguri

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely used tool for causal inference in the presence of unmeasured confounders, which uses single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as instrumental variables to estimate causal effects. However, SNPs often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Ruoyu Wang , Haoyu Zhang , Xihong Lin

Inverse problems, such as accelerated MRI reconstruction, are ill-posed and an infinite amount of possible and plausible solutions exist. This may not only lead to uncertainty in the reconstructed image but also in downstream tasks such as…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-26 Jan Nikolas Morshuis , Matthias Hein , Christian F. Baumgartner

This paper addresses the problem of identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment in the presence of unmeasured confounding and various types of right-censoring. Examples of these censoring mechanisms are administrative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Ilias Willems , Sara Rutten , Gilles Crommen , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Recent work has focused on the potential and pitfalls of causal identification in observational studies with multiple simultaneous treatments. Building on previous work, we show that even if the conditional distribution of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Recent theoretical work in causal inference has explored an important class of variables which, when conditioned on, may further amplify existing unmeasured confounding bias (bias amplification). Despite this theoretical work, existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-20 Tyrel Stokes , Russell Steele , Ian Shrier

In observational studies, identification of ATEs is generally achieved by assuming that the correct set of confounders has been measured and properly included in the relevant models. Because this assumption is both strong and untestable, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-18 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H Kennedy

Two of the principle tasks of causal inference are to define and estimate the effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest. Formally, such treatment effects are defined as a possibly functional summary of the data generating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-26 Herbert Susmann , Antoine Chambaz

Clinical machine learning applications are often plagued with confounders that are clinically irrelevant, but can still artificially boost the predictive performance of the algorithms. Confounding is especially problematic in mobile health…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-29 Elias Chaibub Neto

Several problems in statistics involve the combination of high-variance unbiased estimators with low-variance estimators that are only unbiased under strong assumptions. A notable example is the estimation of causal effects while combining…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Michael Oberst , Alexander D'Amour , Minmin Chen , Yuyan Wang , David Sontag , Steve Yadlowsky

Performing causal inference in observational studies requires we assume confounding variables are correctly adjusted for. G-computation methods are often used in these scenarios, with several recent proposals using Bayesian versions of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Daniel Daly-Grafstein , Paul Gustafson

We propose an adversarial evaluation framework for sensitive feature inference based on minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimation with a finite sample size and linear predictive models. Our approach establishes theoretical lower bounds…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-15 Monica Welfert , Nathan Stromberg , Mario Diaz , Lalitha Sankar

The goal of causal mediation analysis, often described within the potential outcomes framework, is to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest along different causal pathways. Using the assumption of sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Lexi Rene , Antonio R. Linero , Elizabeth Slate