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The Poisson process of order $i$ is a weighted sum of independent Poisson processes and is used to model the flow of clients in different services. In the paper below we study some extensions of this process, for different forms of the…
Expansion planning problems refer to the monetary and unit investment needed for energy production or storage. An inherent element in these problems is the element of stochasticity in various aspects, such as the generation output of the…
In this paper we fill a gap in the literature by providing exact and explicit expressions for the correlation of general Hawkes processes together with its intensity process. Our methodology relies on the Poisson imbedding representation…
We consider the stochastic volatility model obtained by adding a compound Hawkes process to the volatility of the well-known Heston model. A Hawkes process is a self-exciting counting process with many applications in mathematical finance,…
In this work, based on a realization of an inhomogeneous Poisson process whose intensity function depends on a real unknown parameter, we consider a simple hypothesis against a sequence of close (contiguous) alternatives. Under certain…
In this article we consider an aggregate loss model with dependent losses. The losses occurrence process is governed by a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2), a Markov renewal process process that allows for (1) correlated…
Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…
We consider stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems simply by evaluating an observable function along the orbits of the system and study marked point processes associated to extremal observations of such time series…
In the mean field integrate-and-fire model, the dynamics of a typical neuron within a large network is modeled as a diffusion-jump stochastic process whose jump takes place once the voltage reaches a threshold. In this work, the main goal…
In the mean field integrate-and-fire model, the dynamics of a typical neuron within a large network is modeled as a diffusion-jump stochastic process whose jump takes place once the voltage reaches a threshold. In this work, the main goal…
Topic modeling is traditionally applied to word counts without accounting for the context in which words appear. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) offer contextualized word embeddings, which capture deeper meaning and…
This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…
We discuss ways to measure duration in a power transmission system resilience event by modeling outage and restore processes from utility data. We introduce novel Poisson process models that describe how resilience events progress and…
Many natural phenomena exhibit power law behaviour in the distribution of event size. This scaling is successfully reproduced by Self Organized Criticality (SOC). On the other hand, temporal occurrence in SOC models has a Poisson-like…
The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…
The analysis of the linearization effect in multifractal analysis, and hence of the estimation of moments for multifractal processes, is revisited borrowing concepts from the statistical physics of disordered systems, notably from the…
U-statistics of spatial point processes given by a density with respect to a Poisson process are investigated. In the first half of the paper general relations are derived for the moments of the functionals using kernels from the Wiener-Ito…
We consider a general honest homogeneous continuous-time Markov process with restarts. The process is forced to restart from a given distribution at time moments generated by an independent Poisson process. The motivation to study such…
We propose a mean-field model of interacting point processes where each process has a memory of the time elapsed since its last event (age) and its recent past (leaky memory), generalizing Age-dependent Hawkes processes. The model is…
The Poisson log-normal model is a latent variable model that provides a generic framework for the analysis of multivariate count data. Inferring its parameters can be a daunting task since the conditional distribution of the latent…