Related papers: Backward Conformal Prediction
We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes. Like previous methods, ours possesses a retrospective guarantee of coverage for arbitrary sequences. However, unlike previous methods, we can simultaneously…
Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…
Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…
Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…
Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with finite-sample marginal coverage, but many applications require coverage guarantees that adapt to individual test points, a subpopulation, or a structural component of the data. Existing…
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. However, in split conformal prediction this guarantee is training-conditional only in expectation: across many calibration draws, the average…
This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…
If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…
Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…
Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…
In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very…
Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent…
We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most…
Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…
When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements. In this paper, we assay a complementary perspective originating from the increasing availability of pre-trained and regularly…
Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…
While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees on their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of…
Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…
When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…
Vovk (2015) introduced cross-conformal prediction, a modification of split conformal designed to improve the width of prediction sets. The method, when trained with a miscoverage rate equal to $\alpha$ and $n \gg K$, ensures a marginal…