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Related papers: Zero-Shot Forecasting Mortality Rates: A Global St…

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Behavioral Foundation Models (BFMs) proved successful in producing policies for arbitrary tasks in a zero-shot manner, requiring no test-time training or task-specific fine-tuning. Among the most promising BFMs are the ones that estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Maksim Bobrin , Ilya Zisman , Alexander Nikulin , Vladislav Kurenkov , Dmitry Dylov

Time series forecasting is critical in numerous real-world applications, requiring accurate predictions of future values based on observed patterns. While traditional forecasting techniques work well in in-domain scenarios with ample data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Liran Nochumsohn , Michal Moshkovitz , Orly Avner , Dotan Di Castro , Omri Azencot

Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for $\textit{in-context fine-tuning}$ of a time-series foundation model. In particular, we design a pretrained foundation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Abhimanyu Das , Matthew Faw , Rajat Sen , Yichen Zhou

Time-series foundation models have emerged as a new paradigm for forecasting, yet their ability to effectively leverage exogenous features -- critical for electricity demand forecasting -- remains unclear. This paper empirically evaluates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Wei Soon Cheong , Lian Lian Jiang , Jamie Ng Suat Ling

This work investigates the zero-shot forecasting capability of time series foundation models for Leaf Area Index (LAI) forecasting in agricultural monitoring. Using the HiQ dataset (U.S., 2000-2022), we systematically compare statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Peining Zhang , Hongchen Qin , Haochen Zhang , Ziqi Guo , Guiling Wang , Jinbo Bi

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions:…

The proliferation of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has significantly advanced zero-shot forecasting, enabling predictions for unseen time series without task-specific fine-tuning. Extensive research has confirmed that no single TSFM…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Hao-Nan Shi , Ting-Ji Huang , Lu Han , De-Chuan Zhan , Han-Jia Ye

The success of large-scale pre-training paradigm, exemplified by Large Language Models (LLMs), has inspired the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). However, their application to financial candlestick (K-line) data remains…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-06 Yu Shi , Zongliang Fu , Shuo Chen , Bohan Zhao , Wei Xu , Changshui Zhang , Jian Li

Zero-shot time-series forecasting holds great promise, but is still in its infancy, hindered by limited and biased data corpora, leakage-prone evaluation, and privacy and licensing constraints. Motivated by these challenges, we propose the…

Decision-making in building energy systems critically depends on the predictive accuracy of relevant time-series models. In scenarios lacking extensive data from a target building, foundation models (FMs) represent a promising technology…

Advances in time-series forecasting are driving a shift from conventional machine learning models to foundation models (FMs) that are trained with generalized knowledge. However, existing FMs still perform poorly in the energy fields, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Rui Liang , Yang Deng , Donghua Xie , Fang He , Dan Wang

In the World Wide Web, reliable time series forecasts provide the forward-looking signals that drive resource planning, cache placement, and anomaly response, enabling platforms to operate efficiently as user behavior and content…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Kuiye Ding , Fanda Fan , Zheya Wang , Hongxiao Li , Yifan Wang , Lei Wang , Chunjie Luo , Jianfeng Zhan

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Qingxiang Liu , Xu Liu , Chenghao Liu , Qingsong Wen , Yuxuan Liang

Short-term load prediction (STLP) is critical for modern power distribution system operations, particularly as demand and generation uncertainties grow with the integration of low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-18 Nan Lin , Dong Yun , Weijie Xia , Peter Palensky , Pedro P. Vergara

Time-series forecasting is important for many applications. Forecasting models are usually trained using time-series data in a specific target task. However, sufficient data in the target task might be unavailable, which leads to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-01 Tomoharu Iwata , Atsutoshi Kumagai

We introduce the Cisco Time Series Model, a univariate zero-shot forecaster. This time series foundation model is the result of a general architectural innovation to a time series model enabling it to accept multiresolution input, applied…

Zero-shot inference is a powerful paradigm that enables the use of large pretrained models for downstream classification tasks without further training. However, these models are vulnerable to inherited biases that can impact their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Dyah Adila , Changho Shin , Linrong Cai , Frederic Sala

Time-series forecasting and causal discovery are central in neuroscience, as predicting brain activity and identifying causal relationships between neural populations and circuits can shed light on the mechanisms underlying cognition and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Alessandro Crimi , Andrea Brovelli

Large language models (LLMs) have been applied in many fields and have developed rapidly in recent years. As a classic machine learning task, time series forecasting has recently been boosted by LLMs. Recent works treat large language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Hua Tang , Chong Zhang , Mingyu Jin , Qinkai Yu , Zhenting Wang , Xiaobo Jin , Yongfeng Zhang , Mengnan Du

This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-26 Patrik Andersson , Mathias Lindholm