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Topology design is a critical task for the reliability, economic operation, and resilience of distribution systems. This paper proposes a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) model for designing the topology of a new distribution…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-08-29 Sadra Babaei , Ruiwei Jiang , Chaoyue Zhao

Calibration has emerged as a foundational goal in ``trustworthy machine learning'', in part because of its strong decision theoretic semantics. Independent of the underlying distribution, and independent of the decision maker's utility…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-28 Shayan Kiyani , Hamed Hassani , George Pappas , Aaron Roth

Distributionally robust stochastic optimization (DRSO) is an approach to optimization under uncertainty in which, instead of assuming that there is a known true underlying probability distribution, one hedges against a chosen set of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Rui Gao , Anton J. Kleywegt

This paper studies a risk-sensitive decision-making problem under uncertainty. It considers a decision-making process that unfolds over a fixed number of stages, in which a decision-maker chooses among multiple alternatives, some of which…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-07 Chung-Han Hsieh , Yi-Shan Wong

In performative prediction, predictions guide decision-making and hence can influence the distribution of future data. To date, work on performative prediction has focused on finding performatively stable models, which are the fixed points…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 John Miller , Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yunpeng Xu , Wenge Guo , Zhi Wei

We study contextual chance-constrained programming under decision-dependent uncertainty. In this setting, a decision not only needs to satisfy constraints but also alters the distribution of uncertain outcomes. This dependency makes the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Xiangting Liu , Shengran Wang , Kaile Yan , Zhi-Hai Zhang

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Recently, a special case of precision matrix estimation based on a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) framework has been shown to be equivalent to the graphical lasso. From this formulation, a method for choosing the regularization…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-10 Chau Tran , Pedro Cisneros-Velarde , Sang-Yun Oh , Alexander Petersen

In this paper, we develop a unified framework for studying constrained robust optimal control problems with adjustable uncertainty sets. In contrast to standard constrained robust optimal control problems with known uncertainty sets, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-09 Xiaojing Zhang , Maryam Kamgarpour , Angelos Georghiou , Paul Goulart , John Lygeros

Chance constrained programming (CCP) is a powerful framework for addressing optimization problems under uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce a novel Gradient-Guided Diffusion-based Optimization framework, termed GGDOpt, which tackles…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Boyang Zhang , Zhiguo Wang , Ya-Feng Liu

The scenario-based optimization approach (`scenario approach') provides an intuitive way of approximating the solution to chance-constrained optimization programs, based on finding the optimal solution under a finite number of sampled…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Georg Schildbach , Lorenzo Fagiano , Manfred Morari

Discrimination and calibration represent two important properties of survival analysis, with the former assessing the model's ability to accurately rank subjects and the latter evaluating the alignment of predicted outcomes with actual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Shi-ang Qi , Yakun Yu , Russell Greiner

Decision-making pipelines are generally characterized by tradeoffs among various risk functions. It is often desirable to manage such tradeoffs in a data-adaptive manner. As we demonstrate, if this is done naively, state-of-the art…

Stochastic Optimization (SO) is a classical approach for optimization under uncertainty that typically requires knowledge about the probability distribution of uncertain parameters. As the latter is often unknown, Distributionally Robust…

Offline reinforcement learning aims to learn from pre-collected datasets without active exploration. This problem faces significant challenges, including limited data availability and distributional shifts. Existing approaches adopt a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Yue Wang , Jinjun Xiong , Shaofeng Zou

We present a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach for the transmission expansion planning problem, considering both long- and short-term uncertainties on the system demand and non-dispatchable renewable generation. On the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-17 Alexandre Velloso , David Pozo , Alexandre Street

Uncertainty quantification is becoming increasingly important in image segmentation, especially for high-stakes applications like medical imaging. While conformal risk control generalizes conformal prediction beyond standard miscoverage to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

We study decision dependent distributionally robust optimization models, where the ambiguity sets of probability distributions can depend on the decision variables. These models arise in situations with endogenous uncertainty. The developed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-06-26 Fengqiao Luo , Sanjay Mehrotra

Stochastic and (distributionally) robust optimization problems often become computationally challenging as the number of scenarios or data points increases. Scenario reduction is therefore a key technique for improving tractability. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Kevin-Martin Aigner , Sebastian Denzler , Frauke Liers , Sebastian Pokutta , Kartikey Sharma