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This paper reviews, applies and extends recently proposed methods based on Double Machine Learning (DML) with a focus on program evaluation under unconfoundedness. DML based methods leverage flexible prediction models to adjust for…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-06 Michael C. Knaus

Observational cohort studies are increasingly being used for comparative effectiveness research to assess the safety of therapeutics. Recently, various doubly robust methods have been proposed for average treatment effect estimation by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Xiaoqing Tan , Shu Yang , Wenyu Ye , Douglas E. Faries , Ilya Lipkovich , Zbigniew Kadziola

Researchers and practitioners often wish to measure treatment effects in settings where units interact via markets and recommendation systems. In these settings, units are affected by certain shared states, like prices, algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Chris Hays , Manish Raghavan

Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-04 Jonathan Fuhr , Dominik Papies

We propose a doubly robust inference method for causal effects of continuous treatment variables, under unconfoundedness and with nonparametric or high-dimensional nuisance functions. Our double debiased machine learning (DML) estimators…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-02 Kyle Colangelo , Ying-Ying Lee

Traditionally, spline or kernel approaches in combination with parametric estimation are used to infer the linear coefficient (fixed effects) in a partially linear mixed-effects model for repeated measurements. Using machine learning…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Corinne Emmenegger , Peter Bühlmann

Many programs evaluated in observational studies incorporate a sequential structure, where individuals may be assigned to various programs over time. While this complexity is often simplified by analyzing programs at single points in time,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-16 Fabian Muny

In the last decade, machine learning techniques have gained popularity for estimating causal effects. One machine learning approach that can be used for estimating an average treatment effect is Double/debiased machine learning (DML)…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-17 Daniele Ballinari , Nora Bearth

Double machine learning is a statistical method for leveraging complex black-box models to construct approximately unbiased treatment effect estimates given observational data with high-dimensional covariates, under the assumption of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-03 Nitai Fingerhut , Matteo Sesia , Yaniv Romano

The estimation of causal effects with observational data continues to be a very active research area. In recent years, researchers have developed new frameworks which use machine learning to relax classical assumptions necessary for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Jonathan Fuhr , Philipp Berens , Dominik Papies

We consider the estimation of treatment effects in settings when multiple treatments are assigned over time and treatments can have a causal effect on future outcomes or the state of the treated unit. We propose an extension of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-06-18 Greg Lewis , Vasilis Syrgkanis

The simultaneous application of multiple treatments is increasingly common in many fields, such as healthcare and marketing. In such scenarios, it is important to estimate the single treatment effects and the interaction treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Yuki Murakami , Takumi Hattori , Kohsuke Kubota

Confounding bias is a key challenge in causal effect estimation from observational data. Double Machine Learning (DML) addresses this issue by estimating treatment and outcome nuisance functions, constructing treatment and outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Guodu Xiang , Kui Yu , Yujie Wang , Richang Hong , Fuyuan Cao , Jiye Liang

Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016) provide a generic double/de-biased machine learning (DML) approach for obtaining valid inferential statements about focal parameters, using Neyman-orthogonal scores and…

This paper considers the evaluation of discretely distributed treatments when outcomes are only observed for a subpopulation due to sample selection or outcome attrition. For identification, we combine a selection-on-observables assumption…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-16 Michela Bia , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

We propose a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework with mediation for possibly multivalued discrete or continuous treatments and mediators, aimed at identifying the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome (net of effects operating…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-02 Martin Huber , Sarina Joy Oberhänsli

Recent advances in causal inference have seen the development of methods which make use of the predictive power of machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we develop novel double machine learning (DML) procedures for panel data in which…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-03 Paul S. Clarke , Annalivia Polselli

Uncovering causal mediation effects is of significant value to practitioners seeking to isolate the direct treatment effect from the potential mediated effect. We propose a double machine learning (DML) algorithm for mediation analysis that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Houssam Zenati , Judith Abécassis , Julie Josse , Bertrand Thirion

Optimizing credit limits, interest rates, and loan terms is crucial for managing borrower risk and lifetime value (LTV) in personal loan platform. However, counterfactual estimation of these continuous, multi-dimensional treatments faces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Kexin Zhao , Bo Wang , Cuiying Zhao , Tongyao Wan

We introduce a new instrumental variable (IV) estimator for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of endogeneity. Our estimator is based on double/debiased machine learning (DML) and uses efficient machine learning instruments…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Cyrill Scheidegger , Zijian Guo , Peter Bühlmann
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