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Related papers: Stacked conformal prediction

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This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

This study proposes a novel approach to ensemble prediction, called "covariate-dependent stacking" (CDST). Unlike traditional stacking and model averaging methods, CDST allows model weights to vary flexibly as a function of covariates,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 Tomoya Wakayama , Shonosuke Sugasawa

The widely recommended procedure of Bayesian model averaging is flawed in the M-open setting in which the true data-generating process is not one of the candidate models being fit. We take the idea of stacking from the point estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-15 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

Observations where additive noise is present can for many models be grouped into a compound observation matrix, adhering to the same type of model. There are many ways the observations can be stacked, for instance vertically, horizontally,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-04-15 Ø. Ryan

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Stacking, a heuristic technique for training deep residual networks by progressively increasing the number of layers and initializing new layers by copying parameters from older layers, has proven quite successful in improving the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Naman Agarwal , Pranjal Awasthi , Satyen Kale , Eric Zhao

Conformal predictors are an important class of algorithms that allow predictions to be made with a user-defined confidence level. They are able to do this by outputting prediction sets, rather than simple point predictions. The conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-25 Anthony Bellotti

Coupled learning is a contrastive scheme for tuning the properties of individual elements within a network in order to achieve desired functionality of the system. It takes advantage of physics both to learn using local rules and to…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2024-07-09 Lauren E. Altman , Menachem Stern , Andrea J. Liu , Douglas J. Durian

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

We propose a multi-scale extension of conformal prediction, an approach that constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal statistical assumptions. Classic conformal prediction relies on a single notion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Ali Baheri , Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi

Embedders play a central role in machine learning, projecting any object into numerical representations that can, in turn, be leveraged to perform various downstream tasks. The evaluation of embedding models typically depends on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Maxime Darrin , Philippe Formont , Ismail Ben Ayed , Jackie CK Cheung , Pablo Piantanida

We build a theoretical framework for designing and understanding practical meta-learning methods that integrates sophisticated formalizations of task-similarity with the extensive literature on online convex optimization and sequential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-10 Mikhail Khodak , Maria-Florina Balcan , Ameet Talwalkar

Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-19 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Paolo Toccaceli , Alex Gammerman

In this paper we consider the stacking of isotonic regression and the method of rearrangement with the empirical estimator to estimate a discrete distribution with an infinite support. The estimators are proved to be strongly consistent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-23 Vladimir Pastukhov

Predicting the direction of assets have been an active area of study and a difficult task. Machine learning models have been used to build robust models to model the above task. Ensemble methods is one of them showing results better than a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-25 Avinash Barnwal , Hari Pad Bharti , Aasim Ali , Vishal Singh

In Hyperparameter Optimization (HPO), only the hyperparameter configuration with the best performance is chosen after performing several trials, then, discarding the effort of training all the models with every hyperparameter configuration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Laura Fdez-Díaz , José Ramón Quevedo , Elena Montañés

Learning compact and interpretable representations is a very natural task, which has not been solved satisfactorily even for simple binary datasets. In this paper, we review various ways of composing experts for binary data and argue that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Marc Goessling , Yali Amit

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Conformal prediction methods provide statistically rigorous marginal coverage guarantees for machine learning models, but such guarantees fail to account for algorithmic biases, thereby undermining fairness and trust. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Senrong Xu , Yanke Zhou , Yuhao Tan , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Recommending appropriate algorithms to a classification problem is one of the most challenging issues in the field of data mining. The existing algorithm recommendation models are generally constructed on only one kind of meta-features by…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Guangtao Wang , Qinbao Song , Xiaoyan Zhu