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Related papers: (Visualizing) Plausible Treatment Effect Paths

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In this article we estimate confidence regions of the common measures of (baseline, treatment effect) in observational studies, where the measure of baseline is baseline risk or baseline odds while the measure of treatment effect is odds…

Computation · Statistics 2015-01-22 Li Yin , Xiaoqin Wang

The direct effect of one eventon another can be defined and measured byholding constant all intermediate variables between the two.Indirect effects present conceptual andpractical difficulties (in nonlinear models), because they cannot be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Judea Pearl

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

We seek to understand the probability an individual benefits from treatment (PIBT), an inestimable quantity that must be bounded in practice. Given the innate uncertainty in the population-level bounds on PIBT, we seek to better understand…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-04 Gabriel Ruiz , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

Consider the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect with an instrument variable, where the instrument unconfoundedness holds after adjusting for a set of measured covariates. Several unknown functions of the covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Baoluo Sun , Zhiqiang Tan

Causal mediation analysis has been extended to estimate path-specific effects with multiple intermediate variables, isolating treatment effects through a mediator of interest while excluding pathways through its ancestors. Such analyses…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yang Bai , Sihan Wu , Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

In the quest to make defensible causal claims from observational data, it is sometimes possible to leverage information from "placebo treatments" and "placebo outcomes". Existing approaches employing such information focus largely on point…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Adam Rohde , Chad Hazlett

Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Raghavendra Addanki , David Arbour , Tung Mai , Cameron Musco , Anup Rao

The support recovery problem consists of determining a sparse subset of a set of variables that is relevant in generating a set of observations, and arises in a diverse range of settings such as compressive sensing, and subset selection in…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-08-31 Jonathan Scarlett , Volkan Cevher

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals has attracted growing attention as a statistical tool for performing critical decision-making. We propose a Bayesian inference framework that quantifies the uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Shunsuke Horii , Yoichi Chikahara

In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data-rich environments. We can handle very many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-08 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernández-Val , Christian Hansen

In randomized experiments, interactions between units might generate a treatment diffusion process. This is common when the treatment of interest is an actual object or product that can be shared among peers (e.g., flyers, booklets,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Costanza Tortú , Irene Crimaldi , Fabrizia Mealli , Laura Forastiere

In a data-scarce field such as healthcare, where models often deliver predictions on patients with rare conditions, the ability to measure the uncertainty of a model's prediction could potentially lead to improved effectiveness of decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-26 Lotta Meijerink , Giovanni Cinà , Michele Tonutti

Accurately quantifying uncertainty of individual treatment effects (ITEs) across multiple decision points is crucial for personalized decision-making in fields such as healthcare, finance, education, and online marketplaces. Previous work…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Swaraj Bose , Walter Dempsey

This paper presents a general difference-in-differences framework for identifying path-dependent treatment effects when treatment histories are partially observed. We introduce a novel robust estimator that adjusts for missing histories…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-18 Akanksha Negi , Didier Nibbering

This paper provides a solution to the evaluation of treatment effects in selective samples when neither instruments nor parametric assumptions are available. We provide sharp bounds for average treatment effects under a conditional…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-17 Phillip Heiler , Asbjørn Kaufmann , Bezirgen Veliyev

The control function approach allows the researcher to identify various causal effects of interest. While powerful, it requires a strong invertibility assumption in the selection process, which limits its applicability. This paper expands…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Sukjin Han , Hiroaki Kaido

This study investigates treatment effect estimation in the semi-supervised setting, also can be interpreted as prediction-powered inference. In our setting, we can use not only the standard triple of covariates, treatment indicator, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Masahiro Kato
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