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The objective of this work is to assess the impact of parameter uncertainty on hypersonic aerothermal surface heating predictions in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations using non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ)…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-05-28 Jeremy Redding , Nick Plewacki , Himakar Ganti , Luis Bravo , Prashant Khare

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Alexander Fishkov , Kajetan Schweighofer , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Nikita Kotelevskii , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov

Data-driven methods for modelling purposes in fluid mechanics are a promising alternative given the continuous increase of both computational power and data-storage capabilities. Highly non-linear flows including turbulence and reaction are…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-04-18 Zacharias M. Nikolaou , Charalambos Chrysostomou , Yuki Minamoto , Luc Vervisch

Recent growing interest in using machine learning for turbulence modelling has led to many proposed data-driven turbulence models in the literature. However, most of these models have not been developed with overcoming non-unique mapping…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-08-20 Anthony Man , Mohammad Jadidi , Amir Keshmiri , Hujun Yin , Yasser Mahmoudi

Reliable prediction of turbulent flows is an important necessity across different fields of science and engineering. In Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, the most common type of models are eddy viscosity models that are…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-07-25 Minghan Chu , Weicheng Qian

Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations are presently one of the most popular models for simulating turbulence. Performing RANS simulation requires additional modeling for the anisotropic Reynolds stress tensor, but traditional…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-12-02 Rui Fang , David Sondak , Pavlos Protopapas , Sauro Succi

Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Valentin Arkov

A modelling framework based on the resolvent analysis and machine learning is proposed to predict the turbulent energy in incompressible channel flows. In the framework, the optimal resolvent response modes are selected as the basis…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-03-11 Yitong Fan , Bo Chen , Weipeng Li

To achieve virtual certification for industrial design, quantifying the uncertainties in simulation-driven processes is crucial. We discuss a physics-constrained approach to account for epistemic uncertainty of turbulence models. In order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-12 Marcel Matha , Christian Morsbach

Several Tensor Basis Neural Network (TBNN) frameworks aimed at enhancing turbulence RANS modeling have recently been proposed in the literature as data-driven constitutive models for systems with known invariance properties. However,…

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Shubhendu Trivedi , Brian D. Nord

Neural networks (NNs) lack measures of "reliability" estimation that would enable reasoning over their predictions. Despite the vital importance, especially in areas of human well-being and health, state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Lorena Qendro , Jagmohan Chauhan , Alberto Gil C. P. Ramos , Cecilia Mascolo

Machine learning models have emerged as a very effective strategy to sidestep time-consuming electronic-structure calculations, enabling accurate simulations of greater size, time scale and complexity. Given the interpolative nature of…

Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among many complex systems in science and engineering. The existence of a strange attractor in the turbulent…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-02-23 Andrew J. Majda , Di Qi

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

This paper explores Neural Operators to predict turbulent flows, focusing on the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) model. It aims to develop reduced-order/surrogate models for turbulent flow simulations using Machine Learning. Different model…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-07-26 Fernando Gonzalez , François-Xavier Demoulin , Simon Bernard

Assessing the compliance of a white-box turbulence model with known turbulent knowledge is straightforward. It enables users to screen conventional turbulence models and identify apparent inadequacies, thereby allowing for a more focused…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-10-17 Peng E S Chen , Yuanwei Bin , Xiang I A Yang , Yipeng Shi , Mahdi Abkar , George I. Park

Ensemble forecasting is, so far, the most successful approach to produce relevant forecasts with an estimation of their uncertainty. The main limitations of ensemble forecasting are the high computational cost and the difficulty to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Juan J. Ruiz , Manuel Pulido , Pierre Tandeo

Machine-learning models of atomic-scale interactions achieve the accuracy of the quantum mechanical calculations on which they are trained, but at a dramatically lower computational cost. Their predictions can be made trustworthy by…

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