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Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting, where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-10 Nina Horat , Sina Klerings , Sebastian Lerch

The advents of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven models marks a paradigm shift in risk management strategies for meteorological hazards. This study specifically employs tropical cyclones (TCs) as a focal example. We engineer a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-30 Kairui Feng , Dazhi Xi , Wei Ma , Cao Wang , Yuanlong Li , Xuanhong Chen

Machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored in understanding the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere and furthering weather forecasting. There has been increasing interest from technology companies, government…

Statistical postprocessing is used to translate ensembles of raw numerical weather forecasts into reliable probabilistic forecast distributions. In this study, we examine the use of permutation-invariant neural networks for this task. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-22 Kevin Höhlein , Benedikt Schulz , Rüdiger Westermann , Sebastian Lerch

A storm is a type of extreme weather. Therefore, forecasting the path of a storm is extremely important for protecting human life and property. However, storm forecasting is very challenging because storm trajectories frequently change. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-02 Nguyen Van Thanh , Nguyen Dang Huynh , Nguyen Ngoc Tan , Nguyen Thai Minh , Nguyen Nam Hoang

The field of meteorological forecasting has undergone a significant transformation with the integration of large models, especially those employing deep learning techniques. This paper reviews the advancements and applications of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-11 Hailong Shu , Yue Wang , Weiwei Song , Huichuang Guo , Zhen Song

Accurate and timely estimation of precipitation is critical for issuing hazard warnings (e.g., for flash floods or landslides). Current remotely sensed precipitation products have a few hours of latency, associated with the acquisition and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-20 Mohammad Reza Ehsani , Ariyan Zarei , Hoshin V. Gupta , Kobus Barnard , Ali Behrangi

We propose a neural network approach to produce probabilistic weather forecasts from a deterministic numerical weather prediction. Our approach is applied to operational surface temperature outputs from the Global Deterministic Prediction…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-07 David Landry , Anastase Charantonis , Claire Monteleoni

Classifying the state of the atmosphere into a finite number of large-scale circulation regimes is a popular way of investigating teleconnections, the predictability of severe weather events, and climate change. Here, we investigate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Andreas Holm Nielsen , Alexandros Iosifidis , Henrik Karstoft

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Stephan Rasp , Sebastian Lerch

Statistical post-processing of global ensemble weather forecasts is revisited by leveraging recent developments in machine learning. Verification of past forecasts is exploited to learn systematic deficiencies of numerical weather…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-23 Zied Ben-Bouallegue , Jonathan A Weyn , Mariana C A Clare , Jesper Dramsch , Peter Dueben , Matthew Chantry

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system is an infrastructure that exerts considerable impacts on modern society.Traditional NWP system, however, resolves it by solving complex partial differential equations with a huge computing cluster,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-26 Junchao Gong , Tao Han , Kang Chen , Lei Bai

Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is crucial for hydrometeorological risk management and disaster mitigation, yet remains challenging for current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Traditional ensemble systems such as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-24 Tianyi Xiong , Haonan Chen

Accurate weather prediction is essential for many aspects of life, notably the early warning of extreme weather events such as rainstorms. Short-term predictions of these events rely on forecasts from numerical weather models, in which,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Guoxing Chen , Wei-Chyung Wang

Accurate quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) remains one of the main challenges in numerical weather prediction (NWP), primarily due to the difficulty of representing the full complexity of atmospheric microphysics through…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-05 ChangJae Lee , Heecheol Yang , Byeonggwon Kim

An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-15 Daniel Salles Civitarese , Daniela Szwarcman , Bianca Zadrozny , Campbell Watson

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. This, in turn, is exacting a significant toll in communities worldwide. While prediction skills are increasing with advances in numerical weather…

This study presents a comprehensive climatological benchmarking of tropical cyclones (TCs) generated by AI-based global weather prediction models. Using all TC events from the North Atlantic and Western Pacific basins between 2020 and 2025,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Yanmo Weng , Avantika Gori

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Christopher Bülte , Sohir Maskey , Philipp Scholl , Jonas von Berg , Gitta Kutyniok

The demand for high-resolution information on climate change is critical for accurate projections and decision-making. Presently, this need is addressed through high-resolution climate models or downscaling. High-resolution models are…