English
Related papers

Related papers: Effective Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting wi…

200 papers

Accurate prediction of physical fields is critical in various engineering applications, including thermal management in electronic systems, airfoil shape optimization in aerospace, and flow field control in hypersonic vehicles. This study…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-12 Yuan Jia , Chi Zhang , Hao Ma , Qiao Zhang , Kai Liu , Chih-Yung Wen

Time series forecasting models are becoming increasingly prevalent due to their critical role in decision-making across various domains. However, most existing approaches represent the coupled temporal patterns, often neglecting the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Jintao Zhang , Mingyue Cheng , Xiaoyu Tao , Zhiding Liu , Daoyu Wang

In this work, we propose \texttt{TimeGrad}, an autoregressive model for multivariate probabilistic time series forecasting which samples from the data distribution at each time step by estimating its gradient. To this end, we use diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-09 Kashif Rasul , Calvin Seward , Ingmar Schuster , Roland Vollgraf

Diffusion models have been used for probabilistic time series forecasting and show strong potential. However, fixed noise schedules often produce intermediate states that are hard to invert and a terminal state that deviates from the near…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Jintao Zhang , Zirui Liu , Mingyue Cheng , Xianquan Wang , Zhiding Liu , Qi Liu

Time-series forecasting is fundamental in industrial domains like manufacturing and smart factories. As systems evolve toward automation, models must operate on edge devices (e.g., PLCs, microcontrollers) with strict constraints on latency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Jaehoon Lee , Seungwoo Lee , Younghwi Kim , Dohee Kim , Sunghyun Sim

Accurate spectrum prediction is crucial for dynamic spectrum access (DSA) and resource allocation. However, due to the unique characteristics of spectrum data, existing methods based on the time or frequency domain often struggle to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Yanghao Qin , Bo Zhou , Guangliang Pan , Qihui Wu , Meixia Tao

Diffusion models have become a central tool in deep generative modeling, but standard formulations rely on a single network and a single diffusion schedule to transform a simple prior, typically a standard normal distribution, into the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-29 Takuro Kutsuna

Machine learning methods have been shown to be effective for weather forecasting, based on the speed and accuracy compared to traditional numerical models. While early efforts primarily concentrated on deterministic predictions, the field…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Erik Larsson , Joel Oskarsson , Tomas Landelius , Fredrik Lindsten

Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-15 Yixuan Jia , Siyi Chen , Yida Pan , Xiao Li , Lianghe Shi , Chanyong Jung , Haijie Yuan , Ismail Alkhouri , Yue Cynthia Wu , Saiprasad Ravishankar , Jeffrey A Fessler , Qing Qu

Drift diffusion models (DDMs) have found widespread use in computational neuroscience and other fields. They model evidence accumulation in simple decision tasks as a stochastic process drifting towards a decision barrier. In models where…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 Sicheng Liu , Alexander Fengler , Michael J. Frank , Matthew T. Harrison

Despite the non-autoregressive potential of diffusion language models (dLLMs), existing decoding strategies demonstrate positional bias, failing to fully unlock the potential of arbitrary generation. In this work, we delve into the inherent…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Siyang He , Qiqi Wang , Xiaoran Liu , Hongnan Ma , Yiwei Shi , Yuerong Song , Ying Zhu , Tianyi Liang , Zengfeng Huang , Ziwei He , Xipeng Qiu

Standard diffusion corrupts data using Gaussian noise whose Fourier coefficients have random magnitudes and random phases. While effective for unconditional or text-to-image generation, corrupting phase components destroys spatial…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Yu Zeng , Charles Ochoa , Mingyuan Zhou , Vishal M. Patel , Vitor Guizilini , Rowan McAllister

Leveraging the visual priors of pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models offers a promising solution to enhance zero-shot generalization in dense prediction tasks. However, existing methods often uncritically use the original diffusion…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Jing He , Haodong Li , Wei Yin , Yixun Liang , Leheng Li , Kaiqiang Zhou , Hongbo Zhang , Bingbing Liu , Ying-Cong Chen

Multivariate time series imputation is fundamental in applications such as healthcare, traffic forecasting, and biological modeling, where sensor failures and irregular sampling lead to pervasive missing values. However, existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Runze Li , Hanchen Wang , Wenjie Zhang , Binghao Li , Yu Zhang , Xuemin Lin , Ying Zhang

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has been an important area of research for decades, with reconstruction-based methods, mostly based on generative models, gaining popularity and demonstrating success. Diffusion models have recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Kohei Obata , Zheng Chen , Yasuko Matsubara , Lingwei Zhu , Yasushi Sakurai

We present PANDORA, a novel diffusion-based policy learning framework designed specifically for dexterous robotic piano performance. Our approach employs a conditional U-Net architecture enhanced with FiLM-based global conditioning, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Yanjia Huang , Renjie Li , Zhengzhong Tu

Transformer-based pretrained language models (PLMs) have achieved great success in modern NLP. An important advantage of PLMs is good out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness. Recently, diffusion models have attracted a lot of work to apply…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-27 Huazheng Wang , Daixuan Cheng , Haifeng Sun , Jingyu Wang , Qi Qi , Jianxin Liao , Jing Wang , Cong Liu

Time series prediction, a crucial task across various domains, faces significant challenges due to the inherent complexities of time series data, including non-stationarity, multi-scale periodicity, and transient dynamics, particularly when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-18 Qianru Zhang , Chenglei Yu , Haixin Wang , Yudong Yan , Yuansheng Cao , Siu-Ming Yiu , Tailin Wu , Hongzhi Yin

Forecasting over graph-structured sensor networks demands models that capture both deterministic spatial trends and stochastic variability, while remaining efficient enough for repeated inference as new observations arrive. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Hanlin Dong , Arian Prabowo , Hao Xue , Ao Shuang , Tianyi Zhou , Flora D. Salim

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative frameworks by progressively adding noise to data through a forward process and then reversing this process to generate realistic samples. While these models have achieved strong…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Xingzhuo Guo , Yu Zhang , Baixu Chen , Haoran Xu , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long