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Design optimisation offers the potential to develop lightweight aircraft structures with reduced environmental impact. Due to the high number of design variables and constraints, these challenges are typically addressed using gradient-based…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Hauke F. Maathuis , Roeland De Breuker , Saullo G. P. Castro

With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…

Black-box policy optimization is a class of reinforcement learning algorithms that explores and updates the policies at the parameter level. This class of algorithms is widely applied in robotics with movement primitives or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-22 Marius Memmel , Puze Liu , Davide Tateo , Jan Peters

The global optimization of a high-dimensional black-box function under black-box constraints is a pervasive task in machine learning, control, and engineering. These problems are challenging since the feasible set is typically non-convex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 David Eriksson , Matthias Poloczek

Experiments in engineering are typically conducted in controlled environments where parameters can be set to any desired value. This assumes that the same applies in a real-world setting -- an assumption that is often incorrect as many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Mike Diessner , Kevin J. Wilson , Richard D. Whalley

Bayesian optimization (BO) is one of the most powerful strategies to solve computationally expensive-to-evaluate blackbox optimization problems. However, BO methods are conventionally used for optimization problems of small dimension…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Rémy Priem , Youssef Diouane , Nathalie Bartoli , Sylvain Dubreuil , Paul Saves

Some real-world problems revolve to solve the optimization problem \max_{x\in\mathcal{X}}f\left(x\right) where f\left(.\right) is a black-box function and X might be the set of non-vectorial objects (e.g., distributions) where we can only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-20 Trung Le , Khanh Nguyen , Tu Dinh Nguyen , Dinh Phung

Bayesian optimization works effectively optimizing parameters in black-box problems. However, this method did not work for high-dimensional parameters in limited trials. Parameters can be efficiently explored by nonlinearly embedding them…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Shoki Miyagawa , Atsuyoshi Yano , Naoko Sawada , Isamu Ogawa

High quality Quantitative Precipitation Estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution is crucial to many hydrologic/hydro-meteorological designs. Optimal Quantitative Precipitation Estimation of rainfall improves the accuracy of river and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-09-03 Ruhollah Nasiri , Mohamad Sarajzadeh

This paper investigates a new class of modifier-adaptation schemes to overcome plant-model mismatch in real-time optimization of uncertain processes. The main contribution lies in the integration of concepts from the areas of Bayesian…

Design optimisation potentially leads to lightweight aircraft structures with lower environmental impact. Due to the high number of design variables and constraints, these problems are ordinarily solved using gradient-based optimisation…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Hauke Maathuis , Roeland De Breuker , Saullo G. P. Castro

Many real-world optimisation problems such as hyperparameter tuning in machine learning or simulation-based optimisation can be formulated as expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. A popular approach to tackle such problems is Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-28 Juan Ungredda , Juergen Branke

There are a large number of optimization problems in physical models where the relationships between model parameters and outputs are unknown or hard to track. These models are named as black-box models in general because they can only be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-07 Zhongkai Shangguan , Lei Lin , Wencheng Wu , Beilei Xu

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Yuxuan Wang , Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Wei Wang , Yizhou Wang

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…

Applications · Statistics 2017-07-20 Evan Kodra , Singdhansu Chatterjee , Stone Chen , Auroop R. Ganguly

Accurate precipitation forecasting is a vital challenge of societal importance. Though data-driven approaches have emerged as a widely used solution, solely relying on data-driven approaches has limitations in modeling the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Yujin Tang , Jiaming Zhou , Xiang Pan , Zeying Gong , Junwei Liang

In the financial system, bailout strategies play a pivotal role in mitigating substantial losses resulting from systemic risk. However, the lack of a closed-form objective function to the optimal bailout problem poses significant challenges…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-27 Shuhua Xiao , Jiali Ma , Li Xia , Shushang Zhu

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an effective paradigm for the optimization of expensive-to-sample systems. Standard BO learns the performance of a system $f(x)$ by using a Gaussian Process (GP) model; this treats the system as a black-box and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-03 Leonardo D. González , Victor M. Zavala

Recent advances in AI-based weather prediction have led to the development of artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models with competitive forecast skill compared to traditional NWP models, but with substantially reduced…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Nicholas Loveday , Tracy Hertneky

We present a Bayesian optimization (BO) framework for tuning model predictive controllers (MPC) of central heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) plants. This approach treats the functional relationship between the closed-loop…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-13 Qiugang Lu , Ranjeet Kumar , Victor M. Zavala