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Causal discovery algorithms estimate causal graphs from observational data. This can provide a valuable complement to analyses focussing on the causal relation between individual treatment-outcome pairs. Constraint-based causal discovery…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Janine Witte , Ronja Foraita , Vanessa Didelez

Causal discovery can be computationally demanding for large numbers of variables. If we only wish to estimate the causal effects on a small subset of target variables, we might not need to learn the causal graph for all variables, but only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Mátyás Schubert , Tom Claassen , Sara Magliacane

Learning a causal effect from observational data is not straightforward, as this is not possible without further assumptions. If hidden common causes between treatment $X$ and outcome $Y$ cannot be blocked by other measurements, one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-10 Ricardo Silva , Shohei Shimizu

Causal discovery uncovers complex relationships between variables, enhancing predictions, decision-making, and insights into real-world systems, especially in nonlinear multivariate time series. However, most existing methods primarily…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Wasim Ahmad , Joachim Denzler , Maha Shadaydeh

Causal Discovery (CD) is a powerful framework for scientific inquiry. Yet, its practical adoption is hindered by a reliance on strong, often unverifiable assumptions and a lack of robust performance assessment. To address these limitations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Gideon Stein , Niklas Penzel , Tristan Piater , Joachim Denzler

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) constitute a central modeling tool to enable principled reasoning about cause-effect interactions in complex systems. However, since the causal structure underlying a group of variables is often unknown and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-25 Gonzalo Mateos , Samuel Rey , Hamed Ajorlou , Mariano Tepper

Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover their underlying causal process. Latent drivers, such as atmospheric processes, play a critical role in temporal dynamics, while direct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Minghao Fu , Biwei Huang , Zijian Li , Yujia Zheng , Ignavier Ng , Guangyi Chen , Yingyao Hu , Kun Zhang

Causal Structure Learning (CSL), also referred to as causal discovery, amounts to extracting causal relations among variables in data. CSL enables the estimation of causal effects from observational data alone, avoiding the need to perform…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Fabrizio Russo , Francesca Toni

Bivariate structural causal models (SCM) are often used to infer causal direction by examining their goodness-of-fit under restricted model classes. In this paper, we describe a parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of a causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-11 Johnny Xi , Hugh Dance , Peter Orbanz , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

The key of sequential recommendation lies in the accurate item correlation modeling. Previous models infer such information based on item co-occurrences, which may fail to capture the real causal relations, and impact the recommendation…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-12-14 Zhenlei Wang , Xu Chen , Rui Zhou , Quanyu Dai , Zhenhua Dong , Ji-Rong Wen

Uncovering causal relationships in data is a major objective of data analytics. Causal relationships are normally discovered with designed experiments, e.g. randomised controlled trials, which, however are expensive or infeasible to be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Jiuyong Li , Saisai Ma , Thuc Duy Le , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu

Bivariate causal direction identification is a fundamental and vital problem in the causal inference field. Among binary causal methods, most methods based on additive noise only use one single causal mechanism to construct a causal model.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Saixiong Liu , Yuhua Qian , Jue Li , Honghong Cheng , Feijiang Li

It is commonplace to encounter nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process may change over time or across domains. The nonstationarity presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-21 Kun Zhang , Biwei Huang , Jiji Zhang , Bernhard Schölkopf , Clark Glymour

At the heart of causal structure learning from observational data lies a deceivingly simple question: given two statistically dependent random variables, which one has a causal effect on the other? This is impossible to answer using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Nikolaos Nikolaou , Konstantinos Sechidis

Temporal data, representing chronological observations of complex systems, has always been a typical data structure that can be widely generated by many domains, such as industry, medicine and finance. Analyzing this type of data is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Chang Gong , Di Yao , Chuzhe Zhang , Wenbin Li , Jingping Bi

Causal discovery from i.i.d. observational data is known to be generally ill-posed. We demonstrate that if we have access to the distribution {induced} by a structural causal model, and additional data from (in the best case) \textit{only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-15 Francesco Montagna

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Weihong Li , Baohong Li , Anpeng Wu , Zhihan Li , Ming Ma , Keting Yin , Kun Kuang

We propose a method to distinguish causal influence from hidden confounding in the following scenario: given a target variable Y, potential causal drivers X, and a large number of background features, we propose a novel criterion for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-07 You-Lin Chen , Lenon Minorics , Dominik Janzing

Causal inference methods based on conditional independence construct Markov equivalent graphs, and cannot be applied to bivariate cases. The approaches based on independence of cause and mechanism state, on the contrary, that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Nataliya Sokolovska , Pierre-Henri Wuillemin

Causal Discovery methods aim to identify a DAG structure that represents causal relationships from observational data. In this article, we stress that it is important to test such methods for robustness in practical settings. As our main…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-16 Marcus Kaiser , Maksim Sipos