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Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-01-05 Sebastian Scher , Gabriele Messori

An estimator for the dynamical temperature in an arbitrary ensemble is derived in the framework of Bayesian statistical mechanics and the maximum entropy principle. We test this estimator numerically by a simulation of the two-dimensional…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-12-14 G. Palma , G. Gutiérrez , S. Davis

Ensemble learning is a process by which multiple base learners are strategically generated and combined into one composite learner. There are two features that are essential to an ensemble's performance, the individual accuracies of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Wenjing Li , Randy C. Paffenroth , David Berthiaume

We present a thermodynamic theory for a generic population of $M$ individuals distributed into $N$ groups (clusters). We construct the ensemble of all distributions with fixed $M$ and $N$, introduce a selection functional that embodies the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-08-19 Themis Matsoukas

The entropy of network ensembles characterizes the amount of information encoded in the network structure, and can be used to quantify network complexity, and the relevance of given structural properties observed in real network datasets…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2014-06-18 Kartik Anand , Dimitri Krioukov , Ginestra Bianconi

Ensemble methods are among the state-of-the-art predictive modeling approaches. Applied to modern big data, these methods often require a large number of sub-learners, where the complexity of each learner typically grows with the size of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-29 Amichai Painsky , Saharon Rosset

A standard belief on emerging collective behavior is that it emerges from simple individual rules. Most of the mathematical research on such collective behavior starts from imperative individual rules, like always go to the center. But how…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-02-23 El Mahdi El Mhamdi , Rachid Guerraoui , Alexandre Maurer , Vladislav Tempez

Machine learning algorithms often take inspiration from established results and knowledge from statistical physics. A prototypical example is the Boltzmann machine algorithm for supervised learning, which utilizes knowledge of classical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-12-04 Tatjana Puskarov , Axel Cortes Cubero

Collective sensing is an emergent phenomenon which enables individuals to estimate a hidden property of the environment through the observation of social interactions. Previous work on collective sensing shows that gregarious individuals…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-24 Stefano Bennati

Supervised online learning with an ensemble of students randomized by the choice of initial conditions is analyzed. For the case of the perceptron learning rule, asymptotically the same improvement in the generalization error of the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-31 R. Urbanczik

Real-world social and economic networks typically display a number of particular topological properties, such as a giant connected component, a broad degree distribution, the small-world property and the presence of communities of densely…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2013-09-05 Diego Garlaschelli , Sebastian E. Ahnert , Thomas M. A. Fink , Guido Caldarelli

A well-known result across information theory, machine learning, and statistical physics shows that the maximum entropy distribution under a mean constraint has an exponential form called the Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution. This is used for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Amir R. Asadi , Emmanuel Abbe

Temperature is a widely used hyperparameter in various tasks involving neural networks, such as classification or metric learning, whose choice can have a direct impact on the model performance. Most of existing works select its value using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Benjamin Chamand , Olivier Risser-Maroix , Camille Kurtz , Philippe Joly , Nicolas Loménie

The goal of a generative model is to capture the distribution underlying the data, typically through latent variables. After training, these variables are often used as a new representation, more effective than the original features in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-04-29 Maruan Al-Shedivat , Emre Neftci , Gert Cauwenberghs

Many organisms in nature use local interactions to generate global cooperative phenomena. To unravel how the behavior of individuals generates effective interactions within a group, we introduce a simple model, wherein each agent senses the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-02-20 Samudrajit Thapa , Bat-El Pinchasik , Yair Shokef

Maximum-entropy ensembles are key primitives in statistical mechanics from which thermodynamic properties can be derived. Over the decades, several approaches have been put forward in order to justify from minimal assumptions the use of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-03-13 Paul Boes , Henrik Wilming , Jens Eisert , Rodrigo Gallego

The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) is often used to obtain prior probability distributions as a method to obtain a Gibbs measure under some restriction giving the probability that a system will be in a certain state compared to the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-06-26 Hector Zenil , Narsis A. Kiani , Jesper Tegnér

The study of complex systems is limited by the fact that only few variables are accessible for modeling and sampling, which are not necessarily the most relevant ones to explain the systems behavior. In addition, empirical data typically…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-11-04 Matteo Marsili , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Yasser Roudi

In non-interacting isolated quantum systems out of equilibrium, local subsystems typically relax to non-thermal stationary states. In the standard framework, information on the rest of the system is discarded, and such states are described…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-03-23 Maxime Lucas , Lorenzo Piroli , Jacopo De Nardis , Andrea De Luca

Ensemble learning is a mainstay in modern data science practice. Conventional ensemble algorithms assign to base models a set of deterministic, constant model weights that (1) do not fully account for individual models' varying accuracy…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-02 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , John Paisley , Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou , Brent A. Coull
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