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This paper presents a comparative analysis evaluating the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) against traditional macro time series forecasting approaches. In recent times, LLMs have surged in popularity for forecasting due to their…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-25 Andrea Carriero , Davide Pettenuzzo , Shubhranshu Shekhar

Machine learning practitioners often face significant challenges in formally integrating their prior knowledge and beliefs into predictive models, limiting the potential for nuanced and context-aware analyses. Moreover, the expertise needed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-23 James Requeima , John Bronskill , Dami Choi , Richard E. Turner , David Duvenaud

The growing complexity of power systems has made accurate load forecasting more important than ever. An increasing number of advanced load forecasting methods have been developed. However, the static design of current methods offers no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Yu Zuo , Dalin Qin , Yi Wang

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to transform financial analytics by integrating numerical and textual data. However, challenges such as insufficient context when fusing multimodal information and the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-14 Hoyoung Lee , Youngsoo Choi , Yuhee Kwon

Although the rise of large language models (LLMs) has introduced new opportunities for time series forecasting, existing LLM-based solutions require excessive training and exhibit limited transferability. In view of these challenges, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Silin Yang , Dong Wang , Haoqi Zheng , Ruochun Jin

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have enhanced natural-language reasoning. However, their limited parametric memory and susceptibility to hallucination present persistent challenges for tasks requiring accurate,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Yu-Hsuan Lin , Qian-Hui Chen , Yi-Jie Cheng , Jia-Ren Zhang , Yi-Hung Liu , Liang-Yu Hsia , Yun-Nung Chen

Time series forecasting plays a significant role in finance, energy, meteorology, and IoT applications. Recent studies have leveraged the generalization capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to adapt to time series forecasting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Hao Liu , Xiaoxing Zhang , Chun Yang , Xiaobin Zhu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for clinical reasoning tasks, which inherently require eliciting calibrated probabilistic beliefs based on available evidence. However, real-world clinical data are frequently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Yuta Kobayashi , Vincent Jeanselme , Shalmali Joshi

Large Language Models (LLMs) store an extensive amount of factual knowledge obtained from vast collections of text. To effectively utilize these models for downstream tasks, it is crucial to have reliable methods for measuring their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Pouya Pezeshkpour

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in decision-making across many real-world applications. Unlike data in vision and language domains, time series data is inherently tied to the evolution of underlying processes and can only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Suhan Guo , Bingxu Wang , Shaodan Zhang , Furao Shen

Multi-agents-based news-driven time series forecasting is considered as a potential paradigm shift in the era of large language models (LLMs). The challenge of this task lies in measuring the influences of different news events towards the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Yuxuan Zhang , Yangyang Feng , Daifeng Li , Kexin Zhang , Junlan Chen , Bowen Deng

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly transformed the landscape of artificial intelligence by demonstrating their ability in generating human-like text across diverse topics. However, despite their impressive capabilities, LLMs…

This study explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) to enhance expert forecasting through ensemble learning. Leveraging the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) dataset, we propose a comprehensive…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-01 Yinuo Ren , Jue Wang

Time series forecasting is critical across multiple domains, where time series data exhibit both local patterns and global dependencies. While Transformer-based methods effectively capture global dependencies, they often overlook short-term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Wenjie Ou , Zhishuo Zhao , Cheng Chen , Dongyue Guo , Yi Lin

Large language models (LLMs) have advanced the automation of data science workflows. Yet it remains unclear whether they can critically leverage external domain knowledge as human data scientists do in practice. To answer this question, we…

Recently, remarkable progress has been made over large language models (LLMs), demonstrating their unprecedented capability in varieties of natural language tasks. However, completely training a large general-purpose model from the scratch…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Yushan Jiang , Zijie Pan , Xikun Zhang , Sahil Garg , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka , Dongjin Song

This study evaluates the forecasting performance of recent language models (LLMs) on binary forecasting questions. We first introduce a novel dataset of over 600 binary forecasting questions, augmented with related news articles and their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Gerrit Mutschlechner , Adam Jatowt

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in time series analysis and seems to understand the time temporal relationship well than traditional transformer-based approaches. However, since LLMs are not designed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Liangwei Nathan Zheng , Chang George Dong , Wei Emma Zhang , Lin Yue , Miao Xu , Olaf Maennel , Weitong Chen

In this work, we evaluate the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) in building Bayesian Networks (BNs) by approximating domain expert priors. LLMs have demonstrated potential as factual knowledge bases; however, their capability to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Aliakbar Nafar , Kristen Brent Venable , Zijun Cui , Parisa Kordjamshidi

Predicting future events is an important activity with applications across multiple fields and domains. For example, the capacity to foresee stock market trends, natural disasters, business developments, or political events can facilitate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Petraq Nako , Adam Jatowt