Related papers: An Agent-Based Extension to Sector-Wise Input-Outp…
Imitation learning is a data-driven approach to learning policies from expert behavior, but it is prone to unreliable outcomes in out-of-sample (OOS) regions. While previous research relying on stable dynamical systems guarantees…
Time variation and persistence are crucial properties of volatility that are often studied separately in energy volatility forecasting models. Here, we propose a novel approach that allows shocks with heterogeneous persistence to vary…
Recent crises have shown that the knowledge of the structure of input-output networks at the firm level is crucial when studying economic resilience from the microscopic point of view of firms that rewire their connections under supply and…
Sea-levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and…
Classical Kyle-type models of informed trading typically treat noise trader demand as purely exogenous. In reality, many market participants react to price movements and news, generating feedback effects that can significantly alter market…
Modal testing plays a critical role in structural analysis by providing essential insights into dynamic behaviour across a wide range of engineering industries. In practice, designing an effective modal test campaign involves complex…
The reproduction of realistic dynamics in financial markets is of great significance, as it enhances our understanding of market evolution beyond other physical processes, and facilitates the development and backtesting of investment…
Dynamic logit models are popular tools in economics to measure state dependence. This paper introduces a new method to derive moment restrictions in a large class of such models with strictly exogenous regressors and fixed effects. We…
The synthesis of control laws for interacting agent-based dynamics and their mean-field limit is studied. A linearization-based approach is used for the computation of sub-optimal feedback laws obtained from the solution of differential…
Land management intensity shapes ecosystem service provision, socio-ecological resilience and is central to sustainable transformation. Yet most land use models emphasise economic and biophysical drivers, while socio-psychological factors…
In this study, we introduce a physical model inspired by statistical physics for predicting price volatility and expected returns by leveraging Level 3 order book data. By drawing parallels between orders in the limit order book and…
As data-driven methods are deployed in real-world settings, the processes that generate the observed data will often react to the decisions of the learner. For example, a data source may have some incentive for the algorithm to provide a…
Feedback optimization has emerged as a promising approach for regulating dynamical systems to optimal steady states that are implicitly defined by underlying optimization problems. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods face two key…
Model-Based Reinforcement Learning involves learning a \textit{dynamics model} from data, and then using this model to optimise behaviour, most often with an online \textit{planner}. Much of the recent research along these lines presents a…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced the fact-checking studies. However, existing automated fact-checking evaluation methods rely on static datasets and classification metrics, which fail to automatically evaluate the…
Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take…
We analyze the linear response of a market network to shocks based on the bipartite market model we introduced in an earlier paper, which we claimed to be able to identify the time-line of the 2009-2011 Eurozone crisis correctly. We show…
Sustainable energy systems require flexible elements to balance the variability of renewable energy sources. Demand response aims to adapt the demand to the variable generation, in particular by shifting the load in time. In this article,…
We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply…
We propose a simple statistical-physics-inspired model for the effect of intrinsic fluctuations on supply and demand in markets. The model consists of agents that trade in two types of goods of which the total number is separately…