Related papers: An Agent-Based Extension to Sector-Wise Input-Outp…
Economic shocks due to Covid-19 were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. To study the upstream and downstream propagation of these industry-specific demand and supply shocks, we build a dynamic…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
This work validates a dynamic production network model, used to quantify the impact of economic shocks caused by COVID-19 in the UK, using data for Belgium. Because the model was published early during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, it relied…
We discuss the impact of a Covid-19--like shock on a simple model economy, described by the previously developed Mark-0 Agent-Based Model. We consider a mixed supply and demand shock, and show that depending on the shock parameters…
In this chapter, an input-output economic model with multiple interactive economic systems is considered. The model captures the multi-dimensional nature of the economic sectors or industries in each economic system, the interdependencies…
The growing prevalence of drift and shocks in modern decision environments exposes a gap between classical optimization theory and real-world practice. Standard models assume fixed objectives, yet organizations from hospitals to power grids…
How a shock to an individual sector propagates to the prices of other sectors and aggregates to GDP depends on how easily sectoral goods can be substituted in production, which is determined by the intermediate input substitution…
We describe a simple model for speculative trading based on adaptive behavior of economic agents.The adaptive behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism for changing agents' stock-to-bond ratios, depending on the past performance of…
Production networks, dynamic systems of firms linked through input-output relationships, transmit microeconomic shocks into macroeconomic fluctuations. While prior studies often assume static networks, real-world economies feature…
Differential sensitivity measures provide valuable tools for interpreting complex computational models used in applications ranging from simulation to algorithmic prediction. Taking the derivative of the model output in direction of a model…
We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…
Agent-based models provide a constructive approach to studying emergent dynamics in life-like systems composed of interacting, adaptive agents. Financial markets serve as a canonical example of such systems, where collective price dynamics…
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the global supply chain is disrupted at an unprecedented scale under uncertain and unknown trends of labor shortage, high material prices, and changing travel or trade regulations. To stay competitive,…
This paper describes an agent-based model of interacting firms, in which interacting firm agents rationally invest capital and labor in order to maximize payoff. Both transactions and production are taken into account in this model. First,…
External-instrument identification leads to biased responses when the shock is not invertible and the measurement error is present. We propose to use this identification strategy in a structural Dynamic Factor Model, which we call Proxy…
Symbolic world models (e.g., PDDL domains or executable simulators) are central to model-based planning, but training LLMs to generate such world models is limited by the lack of large-scale verifiable supervision. Current approaches rely…
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that…
Response times collected in computerised assessments provide information about the underlying response process and may exhibit within-person variation over the course of a test. We propose a latent variable model for log response times that…
Multi-agent systems often operate under feedback, adaptation, and non-stationarity, yet many simulation studies retain static decision rules and fixed control parameters. This paper introduces a general adaptive multi-agent learning…
This paper explores the dynamics of learning in a multi-sector general equilibrium model where firms operate under incomplete information about their production returns to scale. Firms iteratively update their beliefs using maximum…