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Assume that individuals alive at time $t$ in some population can be ranked in such a way that the coalescence times between consecutive individuals are i.i.d. The ranked sequence of these branches is called a coalescent point process. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-02-09 Amaury Lambert

Coalescent processes, including mutation, are derived from Moran type population models admitting large offspring numbers. Including mutation in the coalescent process allows for quantifying the turnover of alleles by computing the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-12-11 Bjarki Eldon

Variation in a sample of molecular sequence data informs about the past evolutionary history of the sample's population. Traditionally, Bayesian modeling coupled with the standard coalescent, is used to infer the sample's bifurcating…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-22 Julie Zhang , Julia A. Palacios

We define a doubly infinite, monotone labeling of Bienayme-Galton-Watson (BGW) genealogies. The genealogy of the current generation backwards in time is uniquely determined by the coalescent point process $(A_i; i\ge 1)$, where $A_i$ is the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Amaury Lambert , Lea Popovic

Sweepstakes reproduction may be generated by chance matching of reproduction with favorable environmental conditions. Gene genealogies generated by sweepstakes reproduction are in the domain of attraction of multiple-merger coalescents…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-15 Bjarki Eldon

We study a universal object for the genealogy of a sample in populations with mutations: the critical birth-death process with Poissonian mutations, conditioned on its population size at a fixed time horizon. We show how this process arises…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-30 G. Achaz , C. Delaporte , A. Lambert

A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-13 Jie Yen Fan , Kais Hamza , Peter Jagers , Fima C. Klebaner

We identify a new natural coalescent structure, which we call the seed-bank coalescent, that describes the gene genealogy of populations under the influence of a strong seed-bank effect, where "dormant forms" of individuals (such as seeds…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-10 Jochen Blath , Adrián González Casanova , Noemi Kurt , Maite Wilke-Berenguer

We consider the long-term behaviour of critical multitype branching processes conditioned on non-extinction, both with respect to the forward and the ancestral processes. Forward in time, we prove a functional limit theorem in the space of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-01 Ellen Baake , Fernando Cordero , Sophia-Marie Mellis , Vitali Wachtel

We introduce an individual-based model for structured populations undergoing demographic bottlenecks, i.e. drastic reductions in population size that last many generations and can have arbitrary shapes. We first show that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-17 Marta Dai Pra , Alison Etheridge , Jere Koskela , Maite Wilke-Berenguer

We ask the question "when will natural selection on a gene in a spatially structured population cause a detectable trace in the patterns of genetic variation observed in the contemporary population?". We focus on the situation in which…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-17 Alison Etheridge , Nic Freeman , Sarah Penington , Daniel Straulino

We study infinite systems of particles which undergo coalescence and fragmentation, in a manner determined solely by their masses. A pair of particles having masses $x$ and $y$ coalesces at a given rate $K(x,y)$. A particle of mass $x$…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-07 Eduardo Cepeda

We consider a system of interacting Moran models with seed-banks. Individuals live in colonies and are subject to resampling and migration as long as they are $active$. Each colony has a seed-bank into which individuals can retreat to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-29 Frank den Hollander , Shubhamoy Nandan

A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Miguel González , Carmen Minuesa , Manuel Mota , Inés del Puerto , Alfonso Ramos

We study a continuous time Mutually Catalytic Branching model on the $\mathbb{Z}^{d}$. The model describes the behavior of two different populations of particles, performing random walk on the lattice in the presence of branching, that is,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Alexandra Jamchi Fugenfirov , Leonid Mytnik

A multi-type neutral Cannings population model with mutation and fixed subpopulation sizes is analyzed. Under appropriate conditions, as all subpopulation sizes tend to infinity, the ancestral process, properly time-scaled, converges to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-13 Martin Möhle

When an advantageous mutation occurs in a population, the favorable allele may spread to the entire population in a short time, an event known as a selective sweep. As a result, when we sample $n$ individuals from a population and trace…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Rick Durrett , Jason Schweinsberg

We study a model of a population with individuals sampled from different species. The Yule-$\Lambda$ nested coalescent describes the genealogy of the sample when each species merges with another randomly chosen species with a constant rate…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-05 Toni Gui

I show how to run an N-time-step Markov chain simulation in a circular fashion, so that the state at time 0 follows the state at time N-1 in the same way as states at times t follow those at times t-1 for 0<t<N. This wrap-around of the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-15 Radford M. Neal

Coalescence processes have received a lot of attention in the context of conditional branching processes with fixed population size and non-overlapping generations. Here we focus on similar problems in the context of the standard…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-25 Nicolas Grosjean , Thierry Huillet