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Decomposing oceanic and atmospheric flow fields into their slowly evolving balanced components and fast evolving wave components is essential for understanding processes like spontaneous wave emission. To study these processes, the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-22 Silvano Gordian Rosenau , Manita Chouksey , Carsten Eden

Modeling extremes of climate variables in the framework of climate change is a particularly difficult task, since it implies taking into account spatio-temporal nonstationarities. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-13 Béwentaoré Sawadogo , Diakarya Barro

The objective of this paper is to employ machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to obtain from input data (storm features) available in or derived from the HURDAT2 database models capable of simulating important hurricane…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-16 Rikhi Bose , Adam L. Pintar , Emil Simiu

This paper explores adaptive variance reduction methods for stochastic optimization based on the STORM technique. Existing adaptive extensions of STORM rely on strong assumptions like bounded gradients and bounded function values, or suffer…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-24 Wei Jiang , Sifan Yang , Yibo Wang , Lijun Zhang

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Jonathan Koh , Daniel Steinfeld , Olivia Martius

Seasonally adjusted series are usually used to analyse the business cycle and turning points. When the irregular is too high, it is preferable to smooth the series in order to analyse the trend-cycle component directly. This study focuses…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-16 Alain Quartier-la-Tente

Wind speed modelling and prediction has been gaining importance because of its significant roles in various stages of wind energy management. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model, based on wavelet transform to improve the accuracy of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-30 G. V. Drisya , K. Satheesh Kumar

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-05 Emma S. Simpson , Jonathan A. Tawn

We introduce a new numerical method for solving time-harmonic acoustic scattering problems. The main focus is on plane waves scattered by smoothly varying material inhomogeneities. The proposed method works for any frequency $\omega$, but…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-01-14 Anton Arnold , Sjoerd Geevers , Ilaria Perugia , Dmitry Ponomarev

A vertical slice model is developed for the Euler-Boussinesq equations with a constant temperature gradient in the direction normal to the slice (the Eady-Boussinesq model). The model is a solution of the full three-dimensional equations…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-27 Hiroe Yamazaki , Jemma Shipton , Michael J. P. Cullen , Lawrence Mitchell , Colin J. Cotter

We analyze turbulent velocity signals measured by two probes in the atmosphere, both at the height of 35 meters but displaced by 40 cm nominally orthogonal to the mean wind. Choosing a suitable coordinate system with respect to that of the…

Calculating transition probabilities between different states of multistable climate tipping systems is computationally challenging in high-dimensional models. Targeted algorithms, such as the Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Lucas Esclapez , Valérian Jacques-Dumas , Reyk Börner , Laurent Soucasse , Henk A. Dijkstra

We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

In this paper, we predict severity of extreme weather events (tropical storms, hurricanes, etc.) using buoy data time series variables such as wind speed and air temperature. The prediction/forecasting method is based on various forecasting…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-21 Vikas Ramachandra

Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Yongxin Li , Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Hansheng Wang

Understanding complex spatial dependency structures is a crucial consideration when attempting to build a modeling framework for wind speeds. Ideally, wind speed modeling should be very efficient since the wind speed can vary significantly…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-28 Matthew de Bie , Janet van Niekerk , Andriette Bekker

To unlock access to stronger winds, the offshore wind industry is advancing towards significantly larger and taller wind turbines. This massive upscaling motivates a departure from wind forecasting methods that traditionally focused on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Feng Ye , Xinxi Zhang , Michael Stein , Ahmed Aziz Ezzat

Understanding the spatial extent of extreme precipitation is necessary for determining flood risk and adequately designing infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipes) to withstand such hazards. While environmental phenomena typically exhibit…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-25 Gregory P. Bopp , Benjamin A. Shaby , Raphaël Huser

This article presents the data-driven equation-free modeling of the dynamics of a hexafloat floating offshore wind turbine based on the application of dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). All the analyses are performed on experimental data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Giorgio Palma , Andrea Bardazzi , Alessia Lucarelli , Chiara Pilloton , Andrea Serani , Claudio Lugni , Matteo Diez

The rising number of extreme climate events in the past decades has motivated the need for a thorough consideration of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity, given the sea-surface temperature (SST). In this paper, we present an analysis of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-13 Jingyang Wu , Rohitash Chandra