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This paper presents a physics and data co-driven surrogate modeling method for efficient rare event simulation of civil and mechanical systems with high-dimensional input uncertainties. The method fuses interpretable low-fidelity physical…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-10 Jianhua Xian , Ziqi Wang

We analyze a stochastic approximation algorithm for decision-dependent problems, wherein the data distribution used by the algorithm evolves along the iterate sequence. The primary examples of such problems appear in performative prediction…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-15 Joshua Cutler , Mateo Díaz , Dmitriy Drusvyatskiy

Hypothesis testing based on surrogate data has emerged as a popular way to test the null hypothesis that a signal is a realization of a linear stochastic process. Typically, this is done by generating surrogates which are made to conform to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2010-08-12 Diego Guarin , Alvaro Orozco , Edilson Delgado

We study a class of prediction problems in which relatively few observations have associated responses, but all observations include both standard covariates as well as additional "helper" covariates. While the end goal is to make…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-13 Eric Xia , Martin J. Wainwright

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Alexander Shen , Mikael Kuusela

In this paper, we consider a surrogate modeling approach using a data-driven nonparametric likelihood function constructed on a manifold on which the data lie (or to which they are close). The proposed method represents the likelihood…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-04 Shixiao W. Jiang , John Harlim

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-05 Rohan Sinha , James Harrison , Spencer M. Richards , Marco Pavone

Real-world decision-making problems often involve decision-dependent uncertainty, where the probability distribution of the random vector depends on the model decisions. Few studies focus on two-stage stochastic programs with this type of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Maria Bazotte , Margarida Carvalho , Thibaut Vidal

We introduce a method to construct a stochastic surrogate model from the results of dimensionality reduction in forward uncertainty quantification. The hypothesis is that the high-dimensional input augmented by the output of a computational…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-12 Jungho Kim , Sang-ri Yi , Ziqi Wang

Prediction with the possibility of abstention (or selective prediction) is an important problem for error-critical machine learning applications. While well-studied in the classification setup, selective approaches to regression are much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-29 Fedor Noskov , Alexander Fishkov , Maxim Panov

We propose a data-driven technique to automatically learn contextual uncertainty sets in robust optimization, resulting in excellent worst-case and average-case performance while also guaranteeing constraint satisfaction. Our method…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Irina Wang , Bart Van Parys , Bartolomeo Stellato

Training spiking neural networks to approximate universal functions is essential for studying information processing in the brain and for neuromorphic computing. Yet the binary nature of spikes poses a challenge for direct gradient-based…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Julia Gygax , Friedemann Zenke

An algorithm is proposed, analyzed, and tested experimentally for solving stochastic optimization problems in which the decision variables are constrained to satisfy equations defined by deterministic, smooth, and nonlinear functions. It is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-09 Frank E. Curtis , Daniel P. Robinson , Baoyu Zhou

This work presents a non-intrusive surrogate modeling scheme based on machine learning technology for predictive modeling of complex systems, described by parametrized time-dependent PDEs. For these problems, typical finite element…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-04-26 Stefanos Nikolopoulos , Ioannis Kalogeris , Vissarion Papadopoulos

In this contribution, we develop an efficient surrogate modeling framework for simulation-based optimization of enhanced oil recovery, where we particularly focus on polymer flooding. The computational approach is based on an adaptive…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-04 Tim Keil , Hendrik Kleikamp , Rolf J Lorentzen , Micheal B Oguntola , Mario Ohlberger

We develop a learning-based algorithm for the control of autonomous systems governed by unknown, nonlinear dynamics to satisfy user-specified spatio-temporal tasks expressed as signal temporal logic specifications. Most existing algorithms…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Christos K. Verginis , Zhe Xu , Ufuk Topcu

Simulating complex physical processes across a domain of input parameters can be very computationally expensive. Multi-fidelity surrogate modeling can resolve this issue by integrating cheaper simulations with the expensive ones in order to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Romain Boutelet , Chih-Li Sung

In stochastic optimization, a common tool to deal sequentially with large sample is to consider the well-known stochastic gradient algorithm. Nevertheless, since the stepsequence is the same for each direction, this can lead to bad results…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-03 Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Pierre Tarrago

The transition of the power grid requires new technologies and methodologies, which can only be developed and tested in simulations. Especially larger simulation setups with many levels of detail can become quite slow. Therefore, the number…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-06-23 Stephan Balduin , Tom Westermann , Erika Puiutta

Metamodeling of complex numerical systems has recently attracted the interest of the mathematical programming community. Despite the progress in high performance computing, simulations remain costly, as a matter of fact, the assessment of…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2018-11-13 Soumaya Azzi , Yuanyuan Huang , Bruno Sudret , Joe Wiart