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Group number selection is a key problem for group panel data modeling. In this work, we develop a cross-validation (CV) method to tackle this problem. Specifically, we split the panel data into two data folds on the time span, with group…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Zhe Li , Xuening Zhu , Changliang Zou

The popularity of modern portfolio theory has decreased among practitioners because of its unfavorable out-of-sample performance. Estimation errors tend to affect the optimal weight calculation noticeably, especially when a large number of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-28 Sven Husmann , Antoniya Shivarova , Rick Steinert

We establish a general upper bound for $K$-fold cross-validation ($K$-CV) errors that can be adapted to many $K$-CV-based estimators and learning algorithms. Based on Rademacher complexity of the model and the Orlicz-$\Psi_{\nu}$ norm of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-31 Ning Xu , Timothy C. G. Fisher , Jian Hong

Ensemble disagreement is widely used as a proxy for epistemic uncertainty in medical image segmentation. In practice, many studies form ensembles via K-fold cross-validation (CV), yet refer to them as ``deep ensembles'' (DE). Because CV…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Tristan Kirscher , Markus Bujotzek , Yannick Kirchhoff , Maximilian Rokuss , Fabian Isensee , Kim-Celine Kahl , Balint Kovacs , Klaus Maier-Hein

Probabilistic regression models typically use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Cross-Validation to fit parameters. These methods can give an advantage to the solutions that fit observations on average, but they do not pay attention to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-24 Naoufal Acharki , Antoine Bertoncello , Josselin Garnier

We propose a kernel-based nonparametric test of relative goodness of fit, where the goal is to compare two models, both of which may have unobserved latent variables, such that the marginal distribution of the observed variables is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-10 Heishiro Kanagawa , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Lester Mackey , Kenji Fukumizu , Arthur Gretton

We present a simple algorithm for identifying and correcting real-valued noisy labels from a mixture of clean and corrupted sample points using Gaussian process regression. A heteroscedastic noise model is employed, in which additive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Yu-Hang Tang , Yuanran Zhu , Wibe A. de Jong

Model averaging has received much attention in the past two decades, which integrates available information by averaging over potential models. Although various model averaging methods have been developed, there are few literatures on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-27 Hengkun Zhu , Guohua Zou

Cross-validation assesses the predictive ability of a model, allowing one to rank models accordingly. Although the nonparametric bootstrap is almost always used to assess the variability of a parameter, it can be used as the basis for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-30 James Stephens Cavenaugh

Machine learning models experience deteriorated performance when trained in the presence of noisy labels. This is particularly problematic for medical tasks, such as survival prediction, which typically face high label noise complexity with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Jianan Chen , Vishwesh Ramanathan , Tony Xu , Anne L. Martel

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for empirical risk minimizers. In the general setting, we prove sanity-check bounds in the spirit of \cite{KR99}…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-11-02 Matthieu Cornec

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Amit Moscovich , Saharon Rosset

Credit risk scorecards are logistic regression models, fitted to large and complex data sets, employed by the financial industry to model the probability of default of a potential customer. In order to ensure that a scorecard remains a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-24 J. du Pisanie , J. S. Allison , I. J. H. Visagie

The classification accuracy of electrocardiogram signal is often affected by diverse factors in which mislabeled training samples issue is one of the most influential problems. In order to mitigate this negative effect, the method of cross…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2017-12-12 Yaoguang Li , Wei Cui , Cong Wang

The main challenge that sets transfer learning apart from traditional supervised learning is the distribution shift, reflected as the shift between the source and target models and that between the marginal covariate distributions. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-02 Zelin He , Ying Sun , Jingyuan Liu , Runze Li

Nested sampling is a promising tool for Bayesian statistical analysis because it simultaneously performs parameter estimation and facilitates model comparison. MultiNest is one of the most popular nested sampling implementations, and has…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-24 Alexander J. Dittmann

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for subagged estimators, both for classification and regressor. General loss functions and class of predictors with both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-11-24 Matthieu CORNEC

In this paper, we propose a robust profile estimation method for the parametric and nonparametric components of a single index model when the errors have a strongly unimodal density with unknown nuisance parameter. Under regularity…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-25 Claudio Agostinelli , Ana M. Bianco , Graciela Boente

We derive the asymptotic risk function of regularized empirical risk minimization (ERM) estimators tuned by $n$-fold cross-validation (CV). The out-of-sample prediction loss of such estimators converges in distribution to the squared-error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Karun Adusumilli , Maximilian Kasy , Ashia Wilson

It is well-known that classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations. To defend against adversarial perturbations, various certified robustness results have been derived. However, existing certified robustnesses are limited to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-23 Jinyuan Jia , Xiaoyu Cao , Binghui Wang , Neil Zhenqiang Gong