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Related papers: Utility Maximization Under Endogenous Uncertainty

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Control systems involving unknown parameters appear a natural framework for applications in which the model design has to take into account various uncertainties. In these circumstances the performance criterion can be given in terms of an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-15 Piernicola Bettiol , Nathalie Khalil

We study the subtlety of optimal paternalism when a utilitarian planner has the power to design a discrete choice set for a heterogeneous population with bounded rationality. We first consider the planning problem in abstraction. We show…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-23 Charles F. Manski , Eytan Sheshinski

When solving optimization problems under uncertainty with contextual data, utilizing machine learning to predict the uncertain parameters' values is a popular and effective approach. Decision-focused learning (DFL) aims at learning a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Noah Schutte , Grigorii Veviurko , Krzysztof Postek , Neil Yorke-Smith

The Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP) framework offers a simple and sound basis for representing and solving simple decision problems, without uncertainty. This paper is devoted to an extension of the CSP framework enabling us to deal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Helene Fargier , Jerome Lang , Roger Martin-Clouaire , Thomas Schiex

In environments with increasing uncertainty, such as smart grid applications based on renewable energy, planning can benefit from incorporating forecasts about the uncertainty and from systematically evaluating the utility of the forecast…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-16 Konstantinos Gatsis , Ufuk Topcu , George J. Pappas

With an eye towards human-centered automation, we contribute to the development of a systematic means to infer features of human decision-making from behavioral data. Motivated by the common use of softmax selection in models of human…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-09-01 Paul Reverdy , Naomi E. Leonard

We study linear policy approximations for the risk-conscious operation of an industrial energy system with uncertain wind power, significant and variable electricity demand, and high thermal output, as found in a modern foundry. The system…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Johannes Nicklaus , Lea Brass , Gunnar Schubert

We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) in which the transition probabilities and rewards belong to an uncertainty set parametrized by a collection of random variables. The probability distributions for these random parameters are…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2020-02-26 Murat Cubuktepe , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Ufuk Topcu

We consider an expected utility maximization problem where the utility function is not necessarily concave and the time horizon is uncertain. We establish a necessary and sufficient condition for the optimality for general non-concave…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-14 Christian Dehm , Thai Nguyen , Mitja Stadje

This paper studies the problem of maximizing the expected utility of terminal wealth for a financial agent with an unbounded random endowment, and with a utility function which supports both positive and negative wealth. We prove the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-10 Mark Owen , Gordan Zitkovic

Distribution shifts have long been regarded as troublesome external forces that a decision-maker should either counteract or conform to. An intriguing feedback phenomenon termed decision dependence arises when the deployed decision affects…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Zhiyu He , Saverio Bolognani , Florian Dörfler , Michael Muehlebach

The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-08-11 Christian Tarsney

In this paper we deal with stochastic optimization problems where the data distributions change in response to the decision variables. Traditionally, the study of optimization problems with decision-dependent distributions has assumed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-05 Zifan Wang , Changxin Liu , Thomas Parisini , Michael M. Zavlanos , Karl H. Johansson

We study the problem of choosing optimal policy rules in uncertain environments using models that may be incomplete and/or partially identified. We consider a policymaker who wishes to choose a policy to maximize a particular counterfactual…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-22 Thomas M. Russell

Utility preference robust optimization (PRO) has recently been proposed to deal with optimal decision making problems where the decision maker's (DM) preference over gains and losses is ambiguous. In this paper, we take a step further to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-11 Jian Hu , Dali Zhang , Huifu Xu , Sainan Zhang

An agent choosing between various actions tends to take the one with the lowest cost. But this choice is arguably too rigid (not adaptive) to be useful in complex situations, e.g., where exploration-exploitation trade-off is relevant in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-12-04 Armen E. Allahverdyan , Aram Galstyan , Ali E. Abbas , Zbigniew R. Struzik

When sample data are governed by an unknown sequence of independent but possibly non-identical distributions, the data-generating process (DGP) in general cannot be perfectly identified from the data. For making decisions facing such…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-11 Xiaoyu Cheng

We give explicit solutions for utility maximization of terminal wealth problem $u(X_T)$ in the presence of Knightian uncertainty in continuous time $[0,T]$ in a complete market. We assume there is uncertainty on both drift and volatility of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-13 Kerem Ugurlu

In black-box function optimization, we need to consider not only controllable design variables but also uncontrollable stochastic environment variables. In such cases, it is necessary to solve the optimization problem by taking into account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-03 Yu Inatsu , Shion Takeno , Masayuki Karasuyama , Ichiro Takeuchi

Snapshots of "best" (or "worst") experience are known to dominate human memory and may thus also have a significant effect on future behaviour. We consider here a model of repeated decision-making where, at every time step, an agent takes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-18 Evangelos Mitsokapas , Rosemary J. Harris