Related papers: An Early Warning Model for Forced Displacement
The aggravating effects of climate change and the growing population in hurricane-prone areas escalate the challenges in large-scale hurricane evacuations. While hurricane preparedness and response strategies vastly rely on the accuracy and…
In the current context of climate change, extreme heatwaves, droughts, and floods are not only impacting the biosphere and atmosphere but the anthroposphere too. Human populations are forcibly displaced, which are now referred to as…
This extended abstract describes an ongoing project that attempts to blend publicly available organic, real time behavioral data, event data, and traditional migration data to determine when and where people will move during times of…
This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…
Prescriptive process monitoring approaches leverage historical data to prescribe runtime interventions that will likely prevent negative case outcomes or improve a process's performance. A centerpiece of a prescriptive process monitoring…
Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…
Floods are one of nature's most catastrophic calamities which cause irreversible and immense damage to human life, agriculture, infrastructure and socio-economic system. Several studies on flood catastrophe management and flood forecasting…
In this study, we addressed the refugee crisis through two main models. For predicting the ultimate number of refugees, we first established a Logistic Regression Model, but due to the limited data points, its prediction accuracy was…
The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…
Along with climate change, more frequent extreme events, such as flooding and tropical cyclones, threaten the livelihoods and wellbeing of poor and vulnerable populations. One of the most immediate needs of people affected by a disaster is…
Accurate and interpretable forecasting models predicting spatially and temporally fine-grained changes in the numbers of intrastate conflict casualties are of crucial importance for policymakers and international non-governmental…
Flooding is a destructive and dangerous hazard and climate change appears to be increasing the frequency of catastrophic flooding events around the world. Physics-based flood models are costly to calibrate and are rarely generalizable…
The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their…
A number of studies have investigated the large-scale drivers and upstream-precursors of extreme weather events, making it clear that the earliest warning signs of extreme events can be remote in both time and space from the impacted…
The conflict in Ukraine is causing large-scale displacement in Europe and in the World. Based on the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates, more than 7 million people fled the country as of 5 September 2022. In…
Floods are large-scale natural disasters that often induce a massive number of deaths, extensive material damage, and economic turmoil. The effects are more extensive and longer-lasting in high-population and low-resource developing…
A central challenge in the study of complex systems is the quantification of emergence -- understood as the ability of the system to exhibit collective behaviours that cannot be traced down to the individual components. While recent work…
Prescriptive process monitoring methods seek to improve the performance of a process by selectively triggering interventions at runtime (e.g., offering a discount to a customer) to increase the probability of a desired case outcome (e.g., a…
In an act of sabotage or terrorism, hazardous material might be released deliberately into the atmosphere to threaten individuals, e.g., those operating critical infrastructure. Hazardous materials in such a scenario include toxic…