Related papers: Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap
We study macroeconomic fluctuations in the United Kingdom over seven centuries (1271--2022) using a time-varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We identify business cycle shocks as innovations explaining the largest share of future output…
European Monetary Union continues to be characterised by significant macroeconomic imbalances. Germany has shown increasing current account surpluses at the expense of the other member states (especially the European periphery). Since the…
The European carbon market plays a pivotal role in the European Union's ambitious target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Understanding the intricacies of factors influencing European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) market…
A Lorentz violating vector "{\ae}ther" field in five dimensional spacetime can give rise to an inflation model in which the eta problem can be avoided. By identifying the inflaton field with the moduli field describing the radius of the…
Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly.…
We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several…
The sharp decline in Ireland's economic performance in recent years has coincided with a recent fall in asylum applications. Simultaneously countries such as Switzerland are seeing increases in asylum numbers with evidence for greater…
Observational measurements of active region emission measures contain clues to the time-dependence of the underlying heating mechanism. A strongly non-linear scaling of the emission measure with temperature indicates a large amount of hot…
Warm inflationary dynamics is shown to satisfy both the slow-roll and density perturbation constraints for $m_{\phi} \gg H$ or equivalently $\eta \gg 1$ and for inflaton field amplitudes much below the Planck scale, $<\phi > < m_{pl}$. I…
The standard wage Phillips curve aggregates away from which workers reset wages when. I show this aggregation omits a first-order term: the covariance between workers' cost-push exposure and their reset frequency. I introduce two sufficient…
Business cycle synchronization between EU and Western Balkan candidate economies is usually modeled with aggregate time-domain correlations that mix short-run and long-run dynamics. This paper addresses that limitation by combining…
The paper studies the nowcasting of Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth using mixed data sampling machine learning panel data regressions with both standard macro releases and daily news data. Using a panel of 19 Euro area…
Arguably the most important problem in quantitative finance is to understand the nature of stochastic processes that underlie market dynamics. One aspect of the solution to this problem involves determining characteristics of the…
In this paper we formulate of the Economic Dispatch (ED) problem in Power Systems in continuous time and include in it ramping constraints to derive an expression of the price that reflects some important inter-temporal constraints of the…
This paper employs Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to detect extreme events (EEs) in the stock market at a continental level. Previous approaches, which analyzed stock indices separately, could not detect EEs for multiple time series in one…
This working paper uses a Dynamic Factor Model ('the model') to identify underlying factors contributing to the debt-induced economic crisis in the People's Democratic Republic of Laos ('Laos'). The analysis aims to use the latent…
A robust thermodynamic relation between inflation corrected monetary valuation and energy emerges from existing work. This is based on the energy used, the aggregate efficiency of all production processes ($\Lambda(t)$) in terms of Joules…
We argue that the eta-problem in supergravity inflation cannot be solved without knowledge of the ground state of hidden sectors that are gravitationally coupled to the inflaton. If the hidden sector breaks supersymmetry independently, its…
In the present study, for the first time, an effort sharing approach based on Inertia and Capability principles is proposed to assess European Union (EU27) carbon budget distribution among the Member States. This is done within the context…
This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…