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Containing an epidemic at its origin is the most desirable mitigation. Epidemics have often originated in rural areas, with rural communities among the first affected. Disease dynamics in rural regions have received limited attention, and…
Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…
Information dissemination intricately intertwines with the dynamics of infectious diseases in the contemporary interconnected world. Recognizing the critical role of public awareness, individual vaccination choices appear to be an essential…
The outbreak of mutant strains and vaccination behaviors have been the focus of recent epidemiological research, but most existing epidemic models failed to simultaneously capture viral mutation and consider the complexity and behavioral…
Agent-based models (ABMs) have emerged as distinguished tools for epidemic modeling due to their ability to capture detailed human contact patterns and can, thus, support decision-makers in times of outbreaks and epidemics. However, as a…
This paper presents a Koopman-based framework for early outbreak detection and intervention selection in a multi-agent epidemic simulation. Agents exhibit mobility patterns, heterogeneous susceptibility, immunity-dependent viral load…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission. Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading dis-…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
We employ an agent-based contact network model to study the relationship between vaccine uptake and disease dynamics in a hypothetical country town from New South Wales, Australia, undergoing a COVID-19 epidemic, over a period of three…
In this work we propose and investigate a new strategy of vaccination, which we call "dynamic vaccination". In our model, susceptible people become aware that one or more of their contacts are infected, and thereby get vaccinated with…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account, by assuming that the relevant information to study…
Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible,…
Vaccines have proven effective in mitigating the threat of severe infections and deaths during outbreaks of infectious diseases. However, vaccine hesitancy (VH) complicates disease spread prediction and healthcare resource assessment across…
Network-based epidemic models have been extensively employed to understand the spread of infectious diseases, but have generally overlooked the fact that most realistic networks are dynamical rather than static. In this paper, we study a…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
During epidemic outbreaks, information dissemination enhances individual protection, while social institutions influence the transmission through measures like government interventions, media campaigns, and hospital resource allocation.…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents. Broken links are either permanently removed or reconnected…