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Probabilities of causation (PoC) offer valuable insights for informed decision-making. This paper introduces novel variants of PoC-controlled direct, natural direct, and natural indirect probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS). These…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Yuta Kawakami , Jin Tian

Probabilities of causation (PoC) are valuable concepts for explainable artificial intelligence and practical decision-making. PoC are originally defined for scalar binary variables. In this paper, we extend the concept of PoC to continuous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Yuta Kawakami , Manabu Kuroki , Jin Tian

A causal decomposition analysis allows researchers to determine whether the difference in a health outcome between two groups can be attributed to a difference in each group's distribution of one or more modifiable mediator variables. With…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-09 Melissa J. Smith , Leslie A. McClure , D. Leann Long

Mediation analysis seeks to infer how much of the effect of an exposure on an outcome can be attributed to specific pathways via intermediate variables or mediators. This requires identification of so-called path-specific effects. These…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-06 Johan Steen , Stijn Vansteelandt

Causal decomposition analysis provides a way to identify mediators that contribute to health disparities between marginalized and non-marginalized groups. In particular, the degree to which a disparity would be reduced or remain after…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-16 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee

Probabilities of causation (PoCs), such as the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), are important tools for decision making but are generally not point identifiable. Existing work has derived bounds for these quantities using…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Tianyuan Cheng , Ruirui Mao , Judea Pearl , Ang Li

Causal variance decompositions for a given disease-specific quality indicator can be used to quantify differences in performance between hospitals or health care providers. While variance decompositions can demonstrate variation in quality…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-26 Bo Chen , Keith A. Lawson , Antonio Finelli , Olli Saarela

Probabilities of Causation (PoC) play a fundamental role in decision-making in law, health care and public policy. Nevertheless, their point identification is challenging, requiring strong assumptions, in the absence of which only bounds…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Numair Sani , Atalanti A. Mastakouri

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probabilities of causation when treatment and effect are not binary. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

We propose a set of causal estimands that we call the "mediated probabilities of causation." These estimands quantify the probabilities that an observed negative outcome was induced via a mediating pathway versus a direct pathway in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-14 Max Rubinstein , Maria Cuellar , Daniel Malinsky

Mediation analysis has been used in many disciplines to explain the mechanism or process that underlies an observed relationship between an exposure variable and an outcome variable via the inclusion of mediators. Decompositions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-03 Xin Gao , Li Li , Li Luo

Causal decomposition has provided a powerful tool to analyze health disparity problems, by assessing the proportion of disparity caused by each mediator. However, most of these methods lack \emph{policy implications}, as they fail to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xinwei Sun , Xiangyu Zheng , Jim Weinstein

Causal mediation analysis has been extended to estimate path-specific effects with multiple intermediate variables, isolating treatment effects through a mediator of interest while excluding pathways through its ancestors. Such analyses…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yang Bai , Sihan Wu , Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui

Given empirical evidence for the dependence of an outcome variable on an exposure variable, we can typically only provide bounds for the "probability of causation" in the case of an individual who has developed the outcome after being…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 A. P. Dawid , R. Murtas , M. Musio

Causal mediation analysis concerns the pathways through which a treatment affects an outcome. While most of the mediation literature focuses on settings with a single mediator, a flourishing line of research has examined settings involving…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-12 Xiang Zhou

The probabilities of causation are commonly used to solve decision-making problems. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Ang Li , Ruirui Mao , Judea Pearl

The decomposition of the overall effect of a treatment into direct and indirect effects is here investigated with reference to a recursive system of binary random variables. We show how, for the single mediator context, the marginal effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Martina Raggi , Elena Stanghellini , Marco Doretti

Principal stratification (PS) is a commonly used approach for understanding the mechanisms through which a treatment affects an outcome. The goal of this work is to extend the PS framework to studies with continuous treatments, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Joseph Antonelli , Minxuan Wu , Fabrizia Mealli , Brenden Beck , Alessandra Mattei

A key objective of decomposition analysis is to identify a factor (the 'mediator') contributing to disparities in an outcome between social groups. In decomposition analysis, a scholarly interest often centers on estimating how much the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-27 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee , Shujie Ma

Analyses of causal mediation often involve exposure-induced confounders or, relatedly, multiple mediators. In such applications, researchers aim to estimate a variety of different quantities, including interventional direct and indirect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-18 Jesse Zhou , Geoffrey T. Wodtke
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