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Deep neural networks has been increasingly applied in fault diagnostics, where it uses historical data to capture systems behavior, bypassing the need for high-fidelity physical models. However, despite their competence in prediction tasks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Arman Mohammadi , Mattias Krysander , Daniel Jung , Erik Frisk

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Günter Klambauer , Sepp Hochreiter

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Thom Badings , Thiago D. Simão , Marnix Suilen , Nils Jansen

To generate accurate and reliable predictions, modern AI systems need to combine data from multiple modalities, such as text, images, audio, spreadsheets, and time series. Multi-modal data introduces new opportunities and challenges for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Arthur Hoarau , Benjamin Quost , Sébastien Destercke , Willem Waegeman

Operating with ignorance is an important concern of the Machine Learning research, especially when the objective is to discover knowledge from the imperfect data. Data mining (driven by appropriate knowledge discovery tools) is about…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-16 Vagan Terziyan , Anton Nikulin

The idea to distinguish and quantify two important types of uncertainty, often referred to as aleatoric and epistemic, has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last couple of years. In this paper, we consider…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Mohammad Hossein Shaker , Eyke Hüllermeier

Large language models increasingly function as epistemic agents -- entities that can 1) autonomously pursue epistemic goals and 2) actively shape our shared knowledge environment. They curate the information we receive, often supplanting…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Nahema Marchal , Stephanie Chan , Matija Franklin , Manon Revel , Geoff Keeling , Roberta Fischli , Bilva Chandra , Iason Gabriel

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

Whether and how data scientists, statisticians and modellers should be accountable for the AI systems they develop remains a controversial and highly debated topic, especially given the complexity of AI systems and the difficulties in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Cassandra Bird , Daniel Williamson , Sabina Leonelli

While machine learning is traditionally a resource intensive task, embedded systems, autonomous navigation and the vision of the Internet-of-Things fuel the interest in resource efficient approaches. These approaches require a carefully…

There currently exists a gap between the theories proposed by the probability and uncertainty and the needs of Artificial Intelligence research. These theories primarily address the needs of expert systems, using knowledge structures which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-12 Brian Falkenhainer

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Mohammad Beigi , Sijia Wang , Ying Shen , Zihao Lin , Adithya Kulkarni , Jianfeng He , Feng Chen , Ming Jin , Jin-Hee Cho , Dawei Zhou , Chang-Tien Lu , Lifu Huang

The unparalleled success of artificial intelligence (AI) in the technology sector has catalyzed an enormous amount of research in the scientific community. It has proven to be a powerful tool, but as with any rapidly developing field, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-07 M. R. Carbone

Deep neural networks have seen enormous success in various real-world applications. Beyond their predictions as point estimates, increasing attention has been focused on quantifying the uncertainty of their predictions. In this review, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Chengyu Dong

While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong capabilities across diverse user queries, they still suffer from hallucinations, often arising from knowledge misalignment between pre-training and fine-tuning. To address this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Joosung Lee , Hwiyeol Jo , Donghyeon Ko , Kyubyung Chae , Cheonbok Park , Jeonghoon Kim

Data-driven control in unknown environments requires a clear understanding of the involved uncertainties for ensuring safety and efficient exploration. While aleatoric uncertainty that arises from measurement noise can often be explicitly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Neha Das , Jonas Umlauft , Armin Lederer , Thomas Beckers , Sandra Hirche

Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds the potential to dramatically improve patient care. However, it is not infallible, necessitating human-AI-collaboration to ensure safe implementation. One aspect of AI safety is the models' ability to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Anna M. Wundram , Christian F. Baumgartner

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to interpret machine learning predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's decision. However, most existing counterfactual methods have not been tested…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Leonidas Christodoulou , Chang Sun

Research in machine learning is at a turning point. While supervised deep learning has conquered the field at a breathtaking pace and demonstrated the ability to solve inference problems with unprecedented accuracy, it still does not quite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-22 Alexander Sagel , Amit Sahu , Stefan Matthes , Holger Pfeifer , Tianming Qiu , Harald Rueß , Hao Shen , Julian Wörmann

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li