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We study prediction-powered conditional inference in the setting where labeled data are scarce, unlabeled covariates are abundant, and a black-box machine-learning predictor is available. The goal is to perform statistical inference on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-09 Yang Sui , Jin Zhou , Hua Zhou , Xiaowu Dai

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

To evaluate a classification algorithm, it is common practice to plot the ROC curve using test data. However, the inherent randomness in the test data can undermine our confidence in the conclusions drawn from the ROC curve, necessitating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-22 Zheshi Zheng , Bo Yang , Peter Song

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for reinforcement learning (RL) in high-stakes settings. We propose a unified conformal prediction framework for infinite-horizon policy evaluation that constructs distribution-free prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Feichen Gan , Youcun Lu , Yingying Zhang , Yukun Liu

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a widely used technique for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. In its standard form, CP offers probabilistic guarantees on the coverage of the true label, but it is agnostic to sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Amin Meghrazi , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Meshi Bashari , Roy Maor Lotan , Yonghoon Lee , Edgar Dobriban , Yaniv Romano

Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Ilia Nouretdinov , Valery Manokhin , Alex Gammerman

Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Yizhou Min , Yizhou Lu , Lanqi Li , Zhen Zhang , Jiaye Teng

In many wireless application scenarios, acquiring labeled data can be prohibitively costly, requiring complex optimization processes or measurement campaigns. Semi-supervised learning leverages unlabeled samples to augment the available…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Houssem Sifaou , Osvaldo Simeone

Modern artificial intelligence systems require calibrated uncertainty estimates that remain reliable in sequential and non-stationary environments. Online conformal prediction (OCP) addresses this challenge through adaptively updated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Bowen Wang , Matteo Zecchin , Osvaldo Simeone

We present a novel robust control framework for continuous-time, perturbed nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty that depends nonlinearly on both the state and control inputs. Unlike conventional approaches that impose structural…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-21 Sihang Wei , Melkior Ornik , Hiroyasu Tsukamoto

Spurious correlations threaten the validity of statistical classifiers. While model accuracy may appear high when the test data is from the same distribution as the training data, it can quickly degrade when the test distribution changes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-21 Zhao Wang , Aron Culotta

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Andro Sabashvili

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free method that wraps a given machine learning model and returns a set of plausible labels that contain the true label with a prescribed coverage rate. In practice, the empirical coverage achieved…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-08 Zhou Wang , Xingye Qiao

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free, finite-sample coverage guarantees but critically relies on exchangeability, a condition often violated under distribution shift. We study the robustness of split conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-23 Xunlei Qian , Yue Xing

With the rise of increasingly powerful and user-facing NLP systems, there is growing interest in assessing whether they have a good representation of uncertainty by evaluating the quality of their predictive distribution over outcomes. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Joris Baan , Raquel Fernández , Barbara Plank , Wilker Aziz

Partial Label Learning (PLL) is a type of weakly supervised learning where each training instance is assigned a set of candidate labels, but only one label is the ground-truth. However, this idealistic assumption may not always hold due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-01 Yu Shi , Dong-Dong Wu , Xin Geng , Min-Ling Zhang