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Metropolis-Hastings (MH) is a foundational Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to formulate and analyse MH in terms of categorical probability, using a recent involutive framework for…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-02 Rob Cornish , Andi Q. Wang

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are an important class of time-series models, used to describe stochastic systems evolving in continuous time. Simulating paths from these processes, particularly after conditioning on noisy…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-03 Xinyi Pei , Minhyeok Kim , Vinayak Rao

The challenging problem of conducting fully Bayesian inference for the reaction rate constants governing stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) is considered. Given the challenges underlying this problem, the Markov jump process representation is…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-10 Andrew Golightly , Emma Bradley , Tom Lowe , Colin S. Gillespie

We introduce a novel and flexible framework for constructing locally adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) samplers by Gibbs sampling the algorithm's tuning parameters conditionally based on the position and momentum at each step. For…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-26 Nawaf Bou-Rabee , Bob Carpenter , Milo Marsden

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from complex high-dimensional continuous distributions. However, in many situations it is necessary or desirable to combine HMC with other…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-24 Guangyao Zhou

We introduce Bilby-MCMC, a Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo sampling algorithm tuned for the analysis of gravitational waves from merging compact objects. Bilby-MCMC provides a parallel-tempered ensemble Metropolis-Hastings sampler with access to a…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-08-18 Gregory Ashton , Colm Talbot

An Automated Sliced Gibbs framework is proposed for fully automated Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling from arbitrary finite dimensional probability kernels. The method targets unnormalized, non-smooth, heavy tailed, and highly multimodal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Prithwish Ghosh , Sujit K Ghosh

The computation of Bayesian estimates of system parameters and functions of them on the basis of observed system performance data is a common problem within system identification. This is a previously studied issue where stochastic…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-09 Johan Dahlin , Adrian Wills , Brett Ninness

Piecewise-Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) hold significant promise for sampling from complex probability distributions. However, their practical implementation is hindered by the need to compute model-specific bounds. Conversely,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-03-17 Augustin Chevallier , Sam Power , Matthew Sutton

Perturb-and-MAP offers an elegant approach to approximately sample from a energy-based model (EBM) by computing the maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) configuration of a perturbed version of the model. Sampling in turn enables learning. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-08 Miguel Lazaro-Gredilla , Antoine Dedieu , Dileep George

Predicting the stationary behavior of observables in isolated many-body quantum systems is a central challenge in quantum statistical mechanics. While one can often use the Gibbs ensemble, which is simple to compute, there are many…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-30 Lodovico Scarpa , Abdulla Alhajri , Vlatko Vedral , Fabio Anza

Gaussian processes (GPs) are frequently used in machine learning and statistics to construct powerful models. However, when employing GPs in practice, important considerations must be made, regarding the high computational burden,…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-08 Karla Monterrubio-Gómez , Sara Wade

Bayesian inference of Gibbs random fields (GRFs) is often referred to as a doubly intractable problem, since the likelihood function is intractable. The exploration of the posterior distribution of such models is typically carried out with…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-16 Aidan Boland , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Hybrid Gibbs samplers represent a prominent class of approximated Gibbs algorithms that utilize Markov chains to approximate conditional distributions, with the Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm standing out as a well-known example. Despite…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-24 Qian Qin , Nianqiao Ju , Guanyang Wang

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-16 Rupert Allison , Joanna Dunkley

I show how Markov chain sampling with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm can be modified so as to take bigger steps when the distribution being sampled from has the characteristic that its density can be quickly recomputed for a new point if…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Radford M. Neal

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a popular class of models suitable for solving control decision problems in probabilistic reactive systems. We consider parametric MDPs (pMDPs) that include parameters in some of the transition…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-06-14 Sebastian Arming , Ezio Bartocci , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Ana Sokolova

We propose an adaptive independent Metropolis--Hastings algorithm with the ability to learn from all previous proposals in the chain except the current location. It is an extension of the independent Metropolis--Hastings algorithm.…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-03-04 Lars Holden , Ragnar Hauge , Marit Holden

We propose a new scheme for selecting pool states for the embedded Hidden Markov Model (HMM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This new scheme allows the embedded HMM method to be used for efficient sampling in state space models…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-12 Alexander Y. Shestopaloff , Radford M. Neal

We develop an algorithm for automatic differentiation of Metropolis-Hastings samplers, allowing us to differentiate through probabilistic inference, even if the model has discrete components within it. Our approach fuses recent advances in…