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We consider the design of a two-arm superiority cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a continuous outcome. We detail Bayesian inference for the analysis of the trial using a linear mixed-effects model. The treatment is compared to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-29 Kevin J Wilson

Estimating treatment effects from observational data provides insights about causality guiding many real-world applications such as different clinical study designs, which are the formulations of trials, experiments, and observational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-11 Zhixuan Chu , Stephen L. Rathbun , Sheng Li

A fundamental question for companies with large amount of logged data is: How to use such logged data together with incoming streaming data to make good decisions? Many companies currently make decisions via online A/B tests, but wrong…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Li Ye , Yishi Lin , Hong Xie , John C. S. Lui

The (contextual) multi-armed bandit problem (MAB) provides a formalization of sequential decision-making which has many applications. However, validly evaluating MAB policies is challenging; we either resort to simulations which inherently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-22 Jules Kruijswijk , Petri Parvinen , Maurits Kaptein

This paper studies a new variant of the stochastic multi-armed bandits problem where auxiliary information about the arm rewards is available in the form of control variates. In many applications like queuing and wireless networks, the arm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Arun Verma , Manjesh K. Hanawal

The multi-armed bandit (MAB) models have attracted significant research attention due to their applicability and effectiveness in various real-world scenarios such as resource allocation, online advertising, and dynamic pricing. As an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Yandi Li , Jianxiong Guo , Yupeng Li , Tian Wang , Weijia Jia

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), there is emerging interest in exploring the causal mechanism in which a cluster-level treatment affects the outcome through an intermediate outcome. The majority of existing causal mediation methods are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

The paper considers two different designs; a two-arm superiority cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a continuous outcome, and a twoarm superiority cluster RCT with a binary outcome. From a Bayesian perspective, for the analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Abdullah Aloufi , Kevin Wilson , Nina Wilson , Lisa Shaw , Christopher Price

Motivated by problems in search and detection we present a solution to a Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandit (CMAB) problem with both heavy-tailed reward distributions and a new class of feedback, filtered semibandit feedback. In a CMAB…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-29 James A. Grant , David S. Leslie , Kevin Glazebrook , Roberto Szechtman

Stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) mechanisms are widely used in sponsored search auctions, crowdsourcing, online procurement, etc. Existing stochastic MAB mechanisms with a deterministic payment rule, proposed in the literature,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-06-01 Divya Padmanabhan , Satyanath Bhat , Prabuchandran K. J. , Shirish Shevade , Y. Narahari

Causal mediation analysis in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) is complicated by the presence of multiple mediators, intracluster correlation, and within-cluster interference. Existing mediation methods often fall short in accommodating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Jiaqi Tong , Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Experimentation is widely utilized for causal inference and data-driven decision-making across disciplines. In an A/B experiment, for example, an online business randomizes two different treatments (e.g., website designs) to their customers…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 Wenxuan Guo , JungHo Lee , Panos Toulis

The presence of interference, where the outcome of an individual may depend on the treatment assignment and behavior of neighboring nodes, can lead to biased causal effect estimation. Current approaches to network experiment design focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Zahra Fatemi , Jean Pouget-Abadie , Elena Zheleva

We consider a novel multi-armed bandit framework where the rewards obtained by pulling the arms are functions of a common latent random variable. The correlation between arms due to the common random source can be used to design a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-31 Samarth Gupta , Gauri Joshi , Osman Yağan

We study the piecewise stationary combinatorial semi-bandit problem with causally related rewards. In our nonstationary environment, variations in the base arms' distributions, causal relationships between rewards, or both, change the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-27 Behzad Nourani-Koliji , Steven Bilaj , Amir Rezaei Balef , Setareh Maghsudi

We study the multi-player stochastic multiarmed bandit (MAB) problem in an abruptly changing environment. We consider a collision model in which a player receives reward at an arm if it is the only player to select the arm. We design two…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-14 Lai Wei , Vaibhav Srivastava

To understand the complexity of sequence classification tasks, Hahn et al. (2021) proposed sensitivity as the number of disjoint subsets of the input sequence that can each be individually changed to change the output. Though effective,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Saurabh Kumar Pandey , Sachin Vashistha , Debrup Das , Somak Aditya , Monojit Choudhury

Bandit algorithms are widely used in sequential decision problems to maximize the cumulative reward. One potential application is mobile health, where the goal is to promote the user's health through personalized interventions based on user…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-23 Gi-Soo Kim , Hyun-Joon Yang , Jane P. Kim

This work explores the idea of a causal contextual multi-armed bandit approach to automated marketing, where we estimate and optimize the causal (incremental) effects. Focusing on causal effect leads to better return on investment (ROI) by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-05 Neela Sawant , Chitti Babu Namballa , Narayanan Sadagopan , Houssam Nassif

Interference, a key concept in causal inference, extends the reward modeling process by accounting for the impact of one unit's actions on the rewards of others. In contextual bandit (CB) settings, where multiple units are present in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-25 Yang Xu , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song