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The issue of disagreements amongst human experts is a ubiquitous one in both machine learning and medicine. In medicine, this often corresponds to doctor disagreements on a patient diagnosis. In this work, we show that machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-30 Maithra Raghu , Katy Blumer , Rory Sayres , Ziad Obermeyer , Robert Kleinberg , Sendhil Mullainathan , Jon Kleinberg

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell

Advances in deep learning systems have allowed large models to match or surpass human accuracy on a number of skills such as image classification, basic programming, and standardized test taking. As the performance of the most capable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Sarah Pratt , Seth Blumberg , Pietro Kreitlon Carolino , Meredith Ringel Morris

Automatic classification of diabetic retinopathy from retinal images has been widely studied using deep neural networks with impressive results. However, there is a clinical need for estimation of the uncertainty in the classifications, a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-02-03 Joel Jaskari , Jaakko Sahlsten , Theodoros Damoulas , Jeremias Knoblauch , Simo Särkkä , Leo Kärkkäinen , Kustaa Hietala , Kimmo Kaski

Deep Convolutional Neural Networks have consistently proven to achieve state-of-the-art results on a lot of imaging tasks over the past years' majority of which comprise of high-quality data. However, it is important to work on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Snigdha Agarwal , Neelam Sinha

Central to human-aligned AI is understanding the benefits of human-elicited labels over synthetic alternatives. While human soft-labels improve calibration by capturing uncertainty, prior studies conflate these benefits with the implicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Maja Pavlovic , Silviu Paun , Massimo Poesio

Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Anchit Jain , Stephen Bates

Trainable evaluation metrics for machine translation (MT) exhibit strong correlation with human judgements, but they are often hard to interpret and might produce unreliable scores under noisy or out-of-domain data. Recent work has…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Chrysoula Zerva , Taisiya Glushkova , Ricardo Rei , André F. T. Martins

Despite the promise of Convolutional neural network (CNN) based classification models for histopathological images, it is infeasible to quantify its uncertainties. Moreover, CNNs may suffer from overfitting when the data is biased. We show…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Ponkrshnan Thiagarajan , Pushkar Khairnar , Susanta Ghosh

Both uncertainty estimation and interpretability are important factors for trustworthy machine learning systems. However, there is little work at the intersection of these two areas. We address this gap by proposing a novel method for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-19 Javier Antorán , Umang Bhatt , Tameem Adel , Adrian Weller , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Deep learning is the state-of-the-art for medical imaging tasks, but requires large, labeled datasets. For risk prediction, large datasets are rare since they require both imaging and follow-up (e.g., diagnosis codes). However, the release…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-16 Yanru Chen , Michael T Lu , Vineet K Raghu

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yashvir S. Grewal , Edwin V. Bonilla , Thang D. Bui

While deep learning has shown promise in improving the automated diagnosis of disease based on chest X-rays, deep networks may exhibit undesirable behavior related to shortcuts. This paper studies the case of spurious class skew in which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-23 Sarah Jabbour , David Fouhey , Ella Kazerooni , Michael W. Sjoding , Jenna Wiens

In Neural Machine Translation, it is typically assumed that the sentence with the highest estimated probability should also be the translation with the highest quality as measured by humans. In this work, we question this assumption and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-27 Markus Freitag , David Grangier , Qijun Tan , Bowen Liang

Pancreatic cancers have one of the worst prognoses compared to other cancers, as they are diagnosed when cancer has progressed towards its latter stages. The current manual histological grading for diagnosing pancreatic adenocarcinomas is…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-20 Biraja Ghoshal , Bhargab Ghoshal , Allan Tucker

Brain vessel segmentation of MR scans is a critical step in the diagnosis of cerebrovascular diseases. Due to the fine vessel structure, manual vessel segmentation is time consuming. Therefore, automatic deep learning (DL) based…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-31 Omini Rathore , Richard Paul , Abigail Morrison , Hanno Scharr , Elisabeth Pfaehler

In healthcare applications, predictive uncertainty has been used to assess predictive accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that predictive uncertainty estimated by the current methods does not highly correlate with prediction error by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-08 Shi Hu , Nicola Pezzotti , Max Welling

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in clinical settings, where sensitivity to linguistic uncertainty can influence diagnostic interpretation and decision-making. Yet little is known about where such epistemic cues are…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Srivarshinee Sridhar , Raghav Kaushik Ravi , Kripabandhu Ghosh

One of the main challenges of deep learning tools is their inability to capture model uncertainty. While Bayesian deep learning can be used to tackle the problem, Bayesian neural networks often require more time and computational power to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Jiaming Zeng , Adam Lesnikowski , Jose M. Alvarez

Machine learning (ML) is often viewed as a powerful data analysis tool that is easy to learn because of its black-box nature. Yet this very nature also makes it difficult to quantify confidence in predictions extracted from ML models, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Paul Patrone , Anthony Kearsley