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This paper considers identification and estimation of causal effect parameters from participating in a binary treatment in a difference in differences (DID) setup when the parallel trends assumption holds after conditioning on observed…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-25 Carolina Caetano , Brantly Callaway , Stroud Payne , Hugo Sant'Anna Rodrigues

This study investigates treatment effect estimation in the semi-supervised setting, also can be interpreted as prediction-powered inference. In our setting, we can use not only the standard triple of covariates, treatment indicator, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Masahiro Kato

Important questions for impact evaluation require knowledge not only of average effects, but of the distribution of treatment effects. The inability to observe individual counterfactuals makes answering these empirical questions…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-25 Bruno Fava

Individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation requires adjusting for the covariate shift between populations with different treatments, and deep representation learning has shown great promise in learning a balanced representation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Amirreza Kazemi , Martin Ester

Semicontinuous outcomes commonly arise in a wide variety of fields, such as insurance claims, healthcare expenditures, rainfall amounts, and alcohol consumption. Regression models, including Tobit, Tweedie, and two-part models, are widely…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Lu Yang

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for measuring causal effects. However, they are often not always feasible, and causal treatment effects must be estimated from observational data. Observational studies do not allow robust…

Warfarin dosing remains challenging due to narrow therapeutic index and highly individual variability. Incorrect warfarin dosing is associated with devastating adverse events. Remarkable efforts have been made to develop the machine…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-09-14 Zhiyuan Ma , Ping Wang , Zehui Gao , Ruobing Wang , Koroush Khalighi

This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-23 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects of binary treatment in panel data, particularly focusing on short panel data with large cross-sectional data and observed confoundings. In contrast to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Meijia Wang , Ignacio Martinez , P. Richard Hahn

In survival contexts, substantial literature exists on estimating optimal treatment regimes, where treatments are assigned based on personal characteristics to maximize the survival probability. These methods assume that a set of covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Junwen Xia , Zishu Zhan , Jingxiao Zhang

The goals in clinical and cohort studies often include evaluation of the association of a time-dependent binary treatment or exposure with a survival outcome. Recently, several impactful studies targeted the association between…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-24 Daniel Nevo , Tsuyoshi Hamada , Shuji Ogino , Molin Wang

While sample sizes in randomized clinical trials are large enough to estimate the average treatment effect well, they are often insufficient for estimation of treatment-covariate interactions critical to studying data-driven precision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-22 Steve Yadlowsky , Fabio Pellegrini , Federica Lionetto , Stefan Braune , Lu Tian

Post-treatment variables often complicate causal inference. They appear in many scientific problems, including noncompliance, truncation by death, mediation, and surrogate endpoint evaluation. Principal stratification is a strategy to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-04 Sizhu Lu , Zhichao Jiang , Peng Ding

This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-03 Martin Huber

We propose some extensions to semi-parametric models based on Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). In the semi-parametric BART paradigm, the response variable is approximated by a linear predictor and a BART model, where the linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Estevão B. Prado , Andrew C. Parnell , Keefe Murphy , Nathan McJames , Ann O'Shea , Rafael A. Moral

This paper examines the identification and estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in event studies, emphasizing the importance of both lagged dependent variables and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that omitting lagged…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-18 Irene Botosaru , Laura Liu

Estimating the effects of long-term treatments through A/B testing is challenging. Treatments, such as updates to product functionalities, user interface designs, and recommendation algorithms, are intended to persist within the system for…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Shan Huang , Chen Wang , Yuan Yuan , Jinglong Zhao , Brocco , Zhang

This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-16 Sukjin Han

Determining the optimal initial dose for warfarin is a critically important task. Several factors have an impact on the therapeutic dose for individual patients, such as patients' physical attributes (Age, Height, etc.), medication profile,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-25 Ashkan Sharabiani , Adam Bress , William Galanter , Rezvan Nazempour , Houshang Darabi

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 George Panagopoulos