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In multi-source learning with discrete labels, distributional heterogeneity across domains poses a central challenge to developing predictive models that transfer reliably to unseen domains. We study multi-source unsupervised domain…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-26 Zijian Guo , Zhenyu Wang , Yifan Hu , Francis Bach

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient optimization algorithm widely employed across various applications. In some challenging BO tasks, input uncertainty arises due to the inevitable randomness in the optimization process, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Lin Yang , Junlong Lyu , Wenlong Lyu , Zhitang Chen

We propose an online data compression approach for efficiently solving distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems with streaming data while maintaining out-of-sample performance guarantees. Our method dynamically constructs…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-12 Irina Wang , Marta Fochesato , Bartolomeo Stellato

We investigate a data-driven quasiconcave maximization problem where information about the objective function is limited to a finite sample of data points. We begin by defining an ambiguity set for admissible objective functions based on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Jian Wu , William B. Haskell , Wenjie Huang , Huifu Xu

Our goal is to build robust optimization problems for making decisions based on complex data from the past. In robust optimization (RO) generally, the goal is to create a policy for decision-making that is robust to our uncertainty about…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-07-07 Theja Tulabandhula , Cynthia Rudin

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-18 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

We consider a minimax problem motivated by distributionally robust optimization (DRO) when the worst-case distribution is continuous, leading to significant computational challenges due to the infinite-dimensional nature of the optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-31 Linglingzhi Zhu , Yao Xie

Credit scoring has been catalogued by the European Commission and the Executive Office of the US President as a high-risk classification task, a key concern being the potential harms of making loan approval decisions based on models that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Pablo Casas , Christophe Mues , Huan Yu

We consider a real-world chemotherapy scheduling template design problem, where we cluster patient types into groups and find a representative time-slot duration for each group to accommodate all patient types assigned to that group, aiming…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-14 Qing Zhu , Xian Yu , Yu-Li Huang

Performative prediction aims to model scenarios where predictive outcomes subsequently influence the very systems they target. The pursuit of a performative optimum (PO) -- minimizing performative risk -- is generally reliant on modeling of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Songkai Xue , Yuekai Sun

Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-07 Maximilian Blesch , Philipp Eisenhauer

We address the brittleness of Bayesian experimental design under model misspecification by formulating the problem as a max--min game between the experimenter and an adversarial nature subject to information-theoretic constraints. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Hany Abdulsamad , Sahel Iqbal , Christian A. Naesseth , Takuo Matsubara , Adrien Corenflos

The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-02 Patrick Kuiper , Ali Hasan , Wenhao Yang , Yuting Ng , Hoda Bidkhori , Jose Blanchet , Vahid Tarokh

This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-14 Karun Adusumilli

We study zeroth-order optimisation under context distributional uncertainty, a setting commonly tackled using Bayesian optimisation (BO). A prevailing strategy to make BO more robust to the complex and noisy nature of data is to employ an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Tigran Ramazyan , Denis Derkach

Group distributionally robust optimization (GDRO) aims to develop models that perform well across $m$ distributions simultaneously. Existing GDRO algorithms can only process a fixed number of samples per iteration, either 1 or $m$, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haomin Bai , Dingzhi Yu , Shuai Li , Haipeng Luo , Lijun Zhang

A novel data-driven stochastic robust optimization (DDSRO) framework is proposed for optimization under uncertainty leveraging labeled multi-class uncertainty data. Uncertainty data in large datasets are often collected from various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-04 Chao Ning , Fengqi You

We consider a class of finite-horizon, linear-quadratic stochastic control problems, where the probability distribution governing the noise process is unknown but assumed to belong to an ambiguity set consisting of all distributions whose…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Feras Al Taha , Eilyan Bitar

Addressing uncertainty is critical for autonomous systems to robustly adapt to the real world. We formulate the problem of model uncertainty as a continuous Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP), where an agent maintains a…

Predictive models for clinical outcomes that are accurate on average in a patient population may underperform drastically for some subpopulations, potentially introducing or reinforcing inequities in care access and quality. Model training…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-03 Stephen R. Pfohl , Haoran Zhang , Yizhe Xu , Agata Foryciarz , Marzyeh Ghassemi , Nigam H. Shah