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The earth system is exceedingly complex and often chaotic in nature, making prediction incredibly challenging: we cannot expect to make perfect predictions all of the time. Instead, we look for specific states of the system that lead to…

Models characterized by autoregressive structure and random coefficients are powerful tools for the analysis of high-frequency, high-dimensional and volatile time series. The available literature on such models is broad, but also sectorial,…

We introduce milearn, a Python package for multi-instance learning (MIL) that follows the familiar scikit-learn fit/predict interface while providing a unified framework for both classical and neural-network-based MIL algorithms for…

Performance-critical industrial applications, including large-scale program, network, and distributed system analyses, are increasingly reliant on recursive queries for data analysis. Yet traditional relational algebra-based query…

Modelling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model, and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding…

The paper presents a new efficient and robust method for rare event probability estimation for computational models of an engineering product or a process returning categorical information only, for example, either success or failure. For…

Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…

Solving chance-constrained stochastic optimal control problems is a significant challenge in control. This is because no analytical solutions exist for up to a handful of special cases. A common and computationally efficient approach for…

Rare events are occurrences that take place with a significantly lower frequency than more common regular events. In manufacturing, predicting such events is particularly important, as they lead to unplanned downtime, shortening equipment…

Generative modeling of high-dimensional data is a key problem in machine learning. Successful approaches include latent variable models and autoregressive models. The complementary strengths of these approaches, to model global and local…

Due to their flexibility and superior performance, machine learning models frequently complement and outperform traditional statistical survival models. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by a lack of user-friendly tools to…

Reliable detection and classification of power system events are critical for maintaining grid stability and situational awareness. Existing approaches often depend on limited labeled datasets, which restricts their ability to generalize to…

Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However,…

Running complex sets of machine learning experiments is challenging and time-consuming due to the lack of a unified framework. This leaves researchers forced to spend time implementing necessary features such as parallelization, caching,…

This paper provides a detailed introductory description of Subset Simulation, an advanced stochastic simulation method for estimation of small probabilities of rare failure events. A simple and intuitive derivation of the method is given…

Discovering statistically significant patterns from databases is an important challenging problem. The main obstacle of this problem is in the difficulty of taking into account the selection bias, i.e., the bias arising from the fact that…

Rare events, despite their infrequency, often carry critical information and require immediate attentions in mission-critical applications such as autonomous driving, healthcare, and industrial automation. The data-intensive nature of these…

Fine-Grained Change Detection and Regression Analysis are essential in many applications of ArtificialIntelligence. In practice, this task is often challenging owing to the lack of reliable ground truth information andcomplexity arising…

Survival analysis is a hotspot in statistical research for modeling time-to-event information with data censorship handling, which has been widely used in many applications such as clinical research, information system and other fields with…

A central challenge of meta-analysis is that the populations underlying existing studies often differ from the target population in unknown ways. We study the problem of predicting function-valued quantities, such as regression and…