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Rare events such as conformational changes in biomolecules, phase transitions, and chemical reactions are central to the behavior of many physical systems, yet they are extremely difficult to study computationally because unbiased…
The problem of studying rare events is central to many areas of computer simulations. In a recent paper [Kang, P., et al., Nat. Comput. Sci. 4, 451-460, 2024], we have shown that a powerful way of solving this problem passes through the…
Under-reporting of count data poses a major roadblock for prediction and inference. In this paper, we focus on the Pogit model, which deconvolves the generating Poisson process from the censuring process controlling under-reporting using a…
Autoregressive neural network models have been used successfully for sequence generation, feature extraction, and hypothesis scoring. This paper presents yet another use for these models: allocating more computation to more difficult…
To address the challenges of imbalanced multi-class datasets typically used for rare event detection in critical cyber-physical systems, we propose an optimal, efficient, and adaptable mixed integer programming (MIP) ensemble weighting…
Weather forecasting plays a vital role in numerous sectors, but accurately capturing the complex dynamics of weather systems remains a challenge for traditional statistical models. Apart from Auto Regressive time forecasting models like…
In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…
The committor function is a central object of study in understanding transitions between metastable states in complex systems. However, computing the committor function for realistic systems at low temperatures is a challenging task, due to…
Complex event processing (CEP) is widely employed to detect occurrences of predefined combinations (patterns) of events in massive data streams. As new events are accepted, they are matched using some type of evaluation structure, commonly…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
Non-significant randomized control trials can hide subgroups of good responders to experimental drugs, thus hindering subsequent development. Identifying such heterogeneous treatment effects is key for precision medicine and many post-hoc…
BACKGROUND: Random-effects meta-analysis within a hierarchical normal modeling framework is commonly implemented in a wide range of evidence synthesis applications. More general problems may even be tackled when considering meta-regression…
In the realm of contemporary data analysis, the use of massive datasets has taken on heightened significance, albeit often entailing considerable demands on computational time and memory. While a multitude of existing works offer optimal…
Ensembles are popular methods for solving practical supervised learning problems. They reduce the risk of having underperforming models in production-grade software. Although critical, methods for learning heterogeneous regression ensembles…
We introduce a new learned descriptor for audio signals which is efficient for event representation. The entries of the descriptor are produced by evaluating a set of regressors on the input signal. The regressors are class-specific and…
Time-to-event (survival) analysis models the time until a pre-specified event occurs. When time is measured in discrete units or rounded into intervals, standard continuous-time models can yield biased estimators. In addition, the event of…
Recurrent event analyses have found a wide range of applications in biomedicine, public health, and engineering, among others, where study subjects may experience a sequence of event of interest during follow-up. The R package reReg (Chiou…
The challenge of \textbf{imbalanced regression} arises when standard Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) biases models toward high-frequency regions of the data distribution, causing severe degradation on rare but high-impact ``tail'' events.…
In the domain of vehicle telematics the automated recognition of driving maneuvers is used to classify and evaluate driving behaviour. This not only serves as a component to enhance the personalization of insurance policies, but also to…
Many scientific and engineering problems require accurate models of dynamical systems with rare and extreme events. Such problems present a challenging task for data-driven modelling, with many naive machine learning methods failing to…