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Many problems in the physical sciences, machine learning, and statistical inference necessitate sampling from a high-dimensional, multi-modal probability distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, the ubiquitous tool for this…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-05-12 Marylou Gabrié , Grant M. Rotskoff , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

We address the problem of prediction for extreme observations by proposing an extremal linear prediction method. We construct an inner product space of nonnegative random variables derived from transformed-linear combinations of independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Jeongjin Lee , Daniel Cooley

Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Antoine Blanchard , Nishant Parashar , Boyko Dodov , Christian Lessig , Themistoklis Sapsis

Deep learning provides a versatile suite of methods for extracting structured information from complex datasets, enabling deeper understanding of underlying fluid dynamic phenomena. The field of turbulence modeling, in particular, benefits…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Anuraj Maurya

Motivated by the computational difficulties incurred by popular deep learning algorithms for the generative modeling of temporal densities, we propose a cheap alternative which requires minimal hyperparameter tuning and scales favorably to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-13 Jonah Botvinick-Greenhouse , Yunan Yang , Romit Maulik

We characterise the learning of a mixture of two clouds of data points with generic centroids via empirical risk minimisation in the high dimensional regime, under the assumptions of generic convex loss and convex regularisation. Each cloud…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Urte Adomaityte , Gabriele Sicuro , Pierpaolo Vivo

With the expansion of renewables in the electricity mix, power grid variability will increase, hence a need to robustify the system to guarantee its security. Therefore, Transport System Operators (TSOs) must conduct analyses to simulate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Nathan Weill , Jonathan Dumas

Normalizing flows are a promising tool for modeling probability distributions in physical systems. While state-of-the-art flows accurately approximate distributions and energies, applications in physics additionally require smooth energies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-01 Jonas Köhler , Andreas Krämer , Frank Noé

Normalizing flows are a class of generative models that enable exact likelihood evaluation. While these models have already found various applications in particle physics, normalizing flows are not flexible enough to model many of the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2022-09-07 Rob Verheyen

Accurately quantifying the increased risks of climate extremes requires generating large ensembles of climate realization across a wide range of emissions scenarios, which is computationally challenging for conventional Earth System Models.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-08-22 Mengze Wang , Benedikt Barthel Sorensen , Themistoklis Sapsis

Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-16 Lachlan Gibson , Marcus Hoerger , Dirk Kroese

A recent development in extreme value modeling uses the geometry of the dataset to perform inference on the multivariate tail. A key quantity in this inference is the gauge function, whose values define this geometry. Methodology proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Ryan Campbell , Jennifer Wadsworth

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-16 Evandro Konzen , Claudia Neves , Philip Jonathan

We propose a spectral clustering algorithm for analyzing the dependence structure of multivariate extremes. More specifically, we focus on the asymptotic dependence of multivariate extremes characterized by the angular or spectral measure…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-02 Marco Avella Medina , Richard A. Davis , Gennady Samorodnitsky

We propose a new multimodal variational autoencoder that enables to generate from the joint distribution and conditionally to any number of complex modalities. The unimodal posteriors are conditioned on the Deep Canonical Correlation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-22 Agathe Senellart , Clément Chadebec , Stéphanie Allassonnière

Urban wind flow modeling and simulation play an important role in air quality assessment and sustainable city planning. A key challenge for modeling and simulation is handling the complex geometries of the urban landscape. Low order models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Francisco Giral , Álvaro Manzano , Ignacio Gómez , Petros Koumoutsakos , Soledad Le Clainche

The dominant approaches to text representation in natural language rely on learning embeddings on massive corpora which have convenient properties such as compositionality and distance preservation. In this paper, we develop a novel method…

This thesis presents novel contributions in two primary areas: advancing the efficiency of generative models, particularly normalizing flows, and applying generative models to solve real-world computer vision challenges. The first part…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Sandeep Nagar

We consider forecasting functional time series of extreme values within a generalised extreme value distribution (GEV). The GEV distribution can be characterised using the three parameters (location, scale and shape). As a result, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 Han Lin Shang , Ruofan Xu

Normalizing flows are generative models that provide tractable density estimation via an invertible transformation from a simple base distribution to a complex target distribution. However, this technique cannot directly model data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-15 Brendan Leigh Ross , Jesse C. Cresswell