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Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in synthetic tabular data generation, yet existing methods struggle to preserve complex feature dependencies, particularly among categorical variables. This work introduces a…

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for clinical reasoning tasks, which inherently require eliciting calibrated probabilistic beliefs based on available evidence. However, real-world clinical data are frequently…

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to forecasting tasks, with some works claiming these systems match or exceed human performance. In this paper, we argue that, as a community, we should be careful about such…

As large language models (LLMs) transition from chat interfaces to integral components of stochastic pipelines and systems approaching general intelligence, the ability to faithfully sample from specified probability distributions has…

We analyze how large language models (LLMs) represent out-of-context words, investigating their reliance on the given context to capture their semantics. Our likelihood-guided text perturbations reveal a correlation between token likelihood…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to produce very high-quality tests and responses to our queries. But how much can we trust this generated text? In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty quantification in LLMs. We propose a…

Some statements have one well-defined continuation (e.g., "the Eiffel Tower is in [Paris]"), whereas others have a natural distribution over multiple options (e.g., "the weighted coin flip was [Heads/Tails].") We argue that language model…

Machine learning practitioners often face significant challenges in formally integrating their prior knowledge and beliefs into predictive models, limiting the potential for nuanced and context-aware analyses. Moreover, the expertise needed…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely employed in programming language analysis to enhance human productivity. Yet, their reliability can be compromised by various code distribution shifts, leading to inconsistent outputs. While…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to evaluate natural language generation tasks as automated metrics. However, the likelihood, a measure of LLM's plausibility for a sentence, can vary due to superficial differences in sentences,…

Autoregressive language models (LMs) map token sequences to probabilities. The usual practice for computing the probability of any character string (e.g. English sentences) is to first transform it into a sequence of tokens that is scored…

Can autoregressive large language models (LLMs) learn consistent probability distributions when trained on sequences in different token orders? We prove formally that for any well-defined probability distribution, sequence perplexity is…

Large language models (LLMs) are being explored for diagnostic decision support, yet their ability to estimate pre-test probabilities, vital for clinical decision-making, remains limited. This study evaluates two LLMs, Mistral-7B and…

Language models trained on large text corpora encode rich distributional information about real-world environments and action sequences. This information plays a crucial role in current approaches to language processing tasks like question…

The emergence of discourse-like tokens such as "wait" and "therefore" in large language models (LLMs) has offered a unique window into their reasoning processes. However, systematic analyses of how such signals vary across training…

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring…

Language models (LMs) are increasingly used as simulacra for people, yet their ability to match the distribution of views of a specific demographic group and be \textit{distributionally aligned} remains uncertain. This notion of…

Ensuring the reliability and verifiability of large language model (LLM)-enabled systems remains a significant challenge in software engineering. We propose a probabilistic framework for systematically analyzing and improving these systems…

Despite their outstanding performance, large language models (LLMs) suffer notorious flaws related to their preference for simple, surface-level textual relations over full semantic complexity of the problem. This proposal investigates a…