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We prove semi-empirical concentration inequalities for random variables which are given as possibly nonlinear functions of independent random variables. These inequalities describe concentration of random variable in terms of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-04 Ilja Kuzborskij , Csaba Szepesvári

Concentration inequalities for the sample mean, like those due to Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Bentkus, are valid for any sample size but overly conservative, yielding confidence intervals that are unnecessarily wide. The central limit theorem…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Morgane Austern , Lester Mackey

For functions of independent random variables, various upper and lower variance bounds are revisited in diverse settings. These are then specialized to the Bernoulli, Gaussian, infinitely divisible cases and to Banach space valued random…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-16 Clément Deslandes , Christian Houdré

This paper is devoted to establishing exponential bounds for the probabilities of deviation of a sample sum from its expectation, when the variables involved in the summation are obtained by sampling in a finite population according to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-13 Patrice Bertail , Stephan Clémençon

In this article we present a Bernstein inequality for sums of random variables which are defined on a graphical network whose nodes grow at an exponential rate. The inequality can be used to derive concentration inequalities in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-20 Johannes T. N. Krebs

Incomplete U-statistics have been proposed to accelerate computation. They use only a subset of the subsamples required for kernel evaluations by complete U-statistics. This paper gives a finite sample bound in the style of Bernstein's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Andreas Maurer

Many inference problems, such as sequential decision problems like A/B testing, adaptive sampling schemes like bandit selection, are often online in nature. The fundamental problem for online inference is to provide a sequence of confidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-07 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Qinqing Zheng

We present a new concentration of measure inequality for sums of independent bounded random variables, which we name a split-kl inequality. The inequality is particularly well-suited for ternary random variables, which naturally show up in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-18 Yi-Shan Wu , Yevgeny Seldin

This paper derives confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for the classical problem of estimating an unknown mean from bounded observations. We present a general approach for deriving concentration bounds, that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-29 Ian Waudby-Smith , Aaditya Ramdas

A concentration result for quadratic form of independent subgaussian random variables is derived. If the moments of the random variables satisfy a "Bernstein condition", then the variance term of the Hanson-Wright inequality can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-28 Pierre C Bellec

When randomized ensembles such as bagging or random forests are used for binary classification, the prediction error of the ensemble tends to decrease and stabilize as the number of classifiers increases. However, the precise relationship…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Miles E. Lopes

Selecting powerful predictors for an outcome is a cornerstone task for machine learning. However, some types of questions can only be answered by identifying the predictors that causally affect the outcome. A recent approach to this causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Guillaume Martinet , Alexander Strzalkowski , Barbara E. Engelhardt

Let $\pa{X_{t}}_{t\in T}$ be a family of real-valued centered random variables indexed by a countable set $T$. In the first part of this paper, we establish exponential bounds for the deviation probabilities of the supremum $Z=\sup_{t\in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-11 Yannick Baraud

We address the challenge of sequential data-driven decision-making under context distributional uncertainty. This problem arises in numerous real-world scenarios where the learner optimizes black-box objective functions in the presence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Francesco Micheli , Efe C. Balta , Anastasios Tsiamis , John Lygeros

In this paper, we establish Berry--Esseen bounds for both self-normalized and non-self-normalized sums of locally dependent random variables. The proofs are based on Stein's method together with a concentration inequality approach. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Zhi-Jun Cai , Qi-Man Shao , Zhuo-Song Zhang

Recent development in high-dimensional statistical inference has necessitated concentration inequalities for a broader range of random variables. We focus on sub-Weibull random variables, which extend sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Heejong Bong , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Let $(\xi_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a sequence of independent and symmetric random variables. We consider the upper bounds on tail probabilities of self-normalized deviations $$ \mathbf{P} \Big( \max_{1\leq k \leq n} \sum_{i=1}^{k} |\xi_i|\big/…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-05 Xiequan Fan

We derive explicit Bernstein-type and Bennett-type concentration inequalities for matrix-valued martingale processes with unbounded observations from the Hermitian space $\mathbb{H}(d)$. Specifically, we assume that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-21 Alexey Kroshnin , Alexandra Suvorikova

This paper develops sharp bounds on moments of sums of k-wise independent bounded random variables, under constrained average variance. The result closes the problem addressed in part in the previous works of Schmidt et al. and Bellare,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Maciej Skorski

Suppose that the (normalised) partial sum of a stationary sequence converges to a standard normal random variable. Given sufficiently moments, when do we have a rate of convergence of $n^{-1/2}$ in the uniform metric, in other words, when…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-31 Moritz Jirak