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Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-09 Wentao Gao , Jiuyong Li , Debo Cheng , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le , Xiaojing Du , Xiongren Chen , Yanchang Zhao , Yun Chen

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are widely used for future climate projections, but their coarse spatial resolution and systematic biases limit their direct use for impact studies. This limitation is particularly critical for wind-related…

Bias correction is a common pre-processing step applied to climate model data before it is used for further analysis. This article introduces an efficient adaptation of a well-established bias-correction method - quantile mapping - for…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-03 Maggie D. Bailey , Douglas W. Nychka , Manajit Sengupta , Soutir Bandyopadhyay

Subseasonal forecasting -- predicting temperature and precipitation 2 to 6 weeks ahead -- is critical for effective water allocation, wildfire management, and drought and flood mitigation. Recent international research efforts have advanced…

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are numerical models that simulate complex physical processes within the Earth's climate system and are essential for understanding and predicting climate change. However, GCMs suffer from systemic biases due to…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-23 Reetam Majumder , Shiqi Fang , A. Sankarasubramanian , Emily C. Hector , Brian J. Reich

Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-07 Sheila Alemany , Jonathan Beltran , Adrian Perez , Sam Ganzfried

General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as…

Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-01 Won Chang , Jiali Wang , Julian Marohnic , Rao Kotamarthi , Elisabeth J. Moyer

Ice storms are extreme weather events that can have devastating implications for the sustainability of natural ecosystems as well as man made infrastructure. Ice storms are caused by a complex mix of atmospheric conditions and are among the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-05-15 Ranjini Swaminathan , Mohan Sridharan , Katharine Hayhoe

We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-06 Callum Leach , Kevin Ewans , Philip Jonathan

Climate change affects ocean temperature, salinity and sea level, impacting monsoons and ocean productivity. Future projections by Global Climate Models based on shared socioeconomic pathways from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-09 Abhishek Pasula , Deepak N. Subramani

Accurate cyclone forecasting is essential for minimizing loss of life, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. Traditional numerical weather prediction models, though effective, are computationally intensive and prone to error due…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Ethan Zachary Lo , Dan Chie-Tien Lo

The advents of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven models marks a paradigm shift in risk management strategies for meteorological hazards. This study specifically employs tropical cyclones (TCs) as a focal example. We engineer a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-30 Kairui Feng , Dazhi Xi , Wei Ma , Cao Wang , Yuanlong Li , Xuanhong Chen

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in…

We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Tim Hall , Stephen Jewson

This study develops a statistical conditional approach to evaluate climate model performance in wind speed and direction and to project their future changes under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario over inland and…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-09 Qiuyi Wu , Julie Bessac , Whitney Huang , Jiali Wang

Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum windspeeds. Since extremes in maximum windspeed have a direct relationship to minimums in the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-11-23 Meagan Carney , Holger Kantz , Matthew Nicol

Global deep-learning weather prediction models have recently been shown to produce forecasts that rival those from physics-based models run at operational centers. It is unclear whether these models have encoded atmospheric dynamics, or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-09-21 Gregory J. Hakim , Sanjit Masanam

Machine learning (ML) models are successful with weather forecasting and have shown progress in climate simulations, yet leveraging them for useful climate predictions needs exploration. Here we show this feasibility using Neural General…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-18 Gan Zhang , Megha Rao , Janni Yuval , Ming Zhao

Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) risk is limited by the brevity and spatial sparsity of the historical record, particularly for the rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS (Wind-focused…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Jennifer Nakamura , Upmanu Lall