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We study estimation and inference using data collected by reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. These algorithms adaptively experiment by interacting with individual units over multiple stages, updating their strategies based on past…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-06 Vasilis Syrgkanis , Ruohan Zhan

Rank-based inference methods are applied in various disciplines, typically when procedures relying on standard normal theory are not justifiable, for example when data are not symmetrically distributed, contain outliers, or responses are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-16 Edgar Brunner , Frank Konietschke , Arne C. Bathke , Markus Pauly

Using state-level opioid overdose mortality data from 1999-2016, we simulated four time-varying treatment scenarios, which correspond to real-world policy dynamics (ramp up, ramp down, temporary and inconsistent). We then evaluated seven…

Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over time.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Hossein Soleimani , Adarsh Subbaswamy , Suchi Saria

In two influential contributions, Rosenbaum (2005, 2020) advocated for using the distances between component-wise ranks, instead of the original data values, to measure covariate similarity when constructing matching estimators of average…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-09 Matias D. Cattaneo , Fang Han , Zhexiao Lin

The article studies query evaluation in parallel constant time in the CRCW PRAM model. While it is well-known that all relational algebra queries can be evaluated in constant time on an appropriate CRCW PRAM model, this article is…

Databases · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Jens Keppeler , Thomas Schwentick , Christopher Spinrath

Modern sequential recommender systems, ranging from lightweight transformer-based variants to large language models, have become increasingly prominent in academia and industry due to their strong performance in the next-item prediction…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Danil Gusak , Anna Volodkevich , Anton Klenitskiy , Alexey Vasilev , Evgeny Frolov

Reasoning models produce long traces of intermediate decisions and tool calls, making test-time verification important for ensuring correctness. Existing approaches either verify only the final answer, which misses early errors, or rely on…

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Peng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Chunyuan Zheng , Yan Zeng , Jiawei Chen , Yang Liu , Ruocheng Guo , Kun Zhang

In Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Rank Reversals are a serious problem that can greatly affect the results of a Multi-Criteria Decision Method against a particular set of alternatives. It is therefore useful to have a mechanism that…

What proportion of treated units actually benefited from an experimental intervention? What is the median or the largest individual treatment effect? This paper develops methods for answering such questions about the distribution of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 David Kim , Yongchang Su , Jake Bowers , Xinran Li

Many real-world classification problems are significantly class-imbalanced to detriment of the class of interest. The standard set of proper evaluation metrics is well-known but the usual assumption is that the test dataset imbalance equals…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-16 Jan Brabec , Tomáš Komárek , Vojtěch Franc , Lukáš Machlica

Clinical trials often involve the assessment of multiple endpoints to comprehensively evaluate the efficacy and safety of interventions. In the work, we consider a global nonparametric testing procedure based on multivariate rank for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-29 Kexuan Li , Lingli Yang , Shaofei Zhao , Susie Sinks , Luan Lin , Peng Sun

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya

Algorithms are commonly used to predict outcomes under a particular decision or intervention, such as predicting whether an offender will succeed on parole if placed under minimal supervision. Generally, to learn such counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Amanda Coston , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

This article extends the widely-used synthetic controls estimator for evaluating causal effects of policy changes to quantile functions. The proposed method provides a geometrically faithful estimate of the entire counterfactual quantile…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-03 Florian Gunsilius

Essential tasks for the verification of probabilistic programs include bounding expected outcomes and proving termination in finite expected runtime. We contribute a simple yet effective inductive synthesis approach for proving such…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-02-09 Kevin Batz , Mingshuai Chen , Sebastian Junges , Benjamin Lucien Kaminski , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Christoph Matheja

Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-13 Amanda Coston , Alan Mishler , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

Conformal prediction has been a very popular method of distribution-free predictive inference in recent years in machine learning and statistics. Its popularity stems from the fact that it works as a wrapper around any prediction algorithm…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-07 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

When there are resource constraints, it is important to rank or estimate treatment benefits according to patient characteristics. This facilitates prioritization of assigning different treatments. Most existing literature on individualized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-05 Muxuan Liang , Menggang Yu