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Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…
The unusually warm sea surface temperature events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a profound impact on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods…
Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. The recently released suite of AI-based weather models produces medium-range forecasts within seconds, with a skill…
Artificial intelligence (AI)-based models are revolutionizing weather forecasting and have surpassed leading numerical weather prediction systems on various benchmark tasks. However, their ability to extrapolate and reliably forecast…
AI-based climate and weather models have rapidly gained popularity, providing faster forecasts with skill that can match or even surpass that of traditional dynamical models. Despite this success, these models face a key challenge:…
The demand for high-resolution information on climate change is critical for accurate projections and decision-making. Presently, this need is addressed through high-resolution climate models or downscaling. High-resolution models are…
Given the interpretability, accuracy, and stability of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, current operational weather forecasting relies heavily on the NWP approach. In the past two years, the rapid development of Artificial…
In just the past few years multiple data-driven Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have been developed, with new versions appearing almost monthly. Given this rapid development, the applicability of these models to…
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel…
Operational meteorological forecasting has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recently, this landscape has faced disruption by the advent of data-driven artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather models,…
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are key sources of subseasonal predictability and major drivers of extreme weather in winter. Accurate and efficient probabilistic forecasting of these events remains a persistent challenge for Numerical…
The traditional method for estimating weather forecast sensitivity to initial conditions uses adjoint models, which are limited to short lead times due to linearization around a control forecast. The advent of deep-learning frameworks…
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that integrate coupled physical equations forward in time are the traditional tools for simulating atmospheric processes and forecasting weather. With recent advancements in deep learning, AI-based…
Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…
Accurate prediction of extreme weather events remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence-based weather prediction systems. While deterministic models such as FuXi, GraphCast, and SFNO have achieved competitive forecast skill…
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), an extreme climate phenomenon, pose significant challenges to marine ecosystems and industries, with their frequency and intensity increasing due to climate change. This study introduces an integrated deep learning…
This paper provides some foundations for valid forecasting of rare and extreme heat waves through a better understanding of the similarities and differences between several consecutive hot days under normal circumstances and rare, extreme…
Heatwaves are intensifying worldwide and are among the deadliest weather disasters. The burden falls disproportionately on marginalized populations and the Global South, where under-resourced health systems, exposure to urban heat islands,…
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme ocean-temperature events with significant impacts on marine ecosystems and related industries. Accurate forecasts (one to six months ahead) of MHWs would aid in mitigating these impacts. However,…
Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only transformer networks to post-process AI-based weather…