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The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-31 Dustin Tran , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Susan Athey , David M. Blei

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-01 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

Data refinement is the standard extension of a refinement relation from programs to datatypes (i.e. a behavioural subtyping relation). Forward/backward simulations provide a tractable method for establishing data refinement, and have been…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Chris Chen , Annabelle McIver , Carroll Morgan

We consider a Bayesian persuasion or information design problem where the sender tries to persuade the receiver to take a particular action via a sequence of signals. This we model by considering multi-phase trials with different…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-11-24 Shih-Tang Su , Vijay G. Subramanian , Grant Schoenebeck

Clustering is a crucial task in various domains of knowledge, including medicine, epidemiology, genomics, environmental science, economics, and visual sciences, among others. Methodologies for inferring the number of clusters have often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Clara Grazian

Bayesian network is a complete model for the variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-11-08 Jianguo Ding

Bayesian inference is a widely used technique for real-time characterization of quantum systems. It excels in experimental characterization in the low data regime, and when the measurements have degrees of freedom. A decisive factor for its…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-10 Alexandra Ramôa , Raffaele Santagati , Nathan Wiebe

Although there is a rich literature on methods for allowing the variance in a univariate regression model to vary with predictors, time and other factors, relatively little has been done in the multivariate case. Our focus is on developing…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Emily Fox , David Dunson

It is well known that conditional independence can be used to factorize a joint probability into a multiplication of conditional probabilities. This paper proposes a constructive definition of inter-causal independence, which can be used to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Nevin Lianwen Zhang , David L Poole

Probabilistic partial observability is a phenomenon occuring when computer systems are deployed in environments that behave probabilistically and whose exact state cannot be fully observed. In this work, we lay the theoretical groundwork…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Tobias Gürtler , Benjamin Lucien Kaminski

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Variational Bayesian inference is an important machine-learning tool that finds application from statistics to robotics. The goal is to find an approximate probability density function (PDF) from a chosen family that is in some sense…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-27 Timothy D. Barfoot , Gabriele M. T. D'Eleuterio

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Katharine Fisher , Youssef Marzouk

We study a conditional state on a quantum logic using Renyi's approach (or Bayesian principle). This approach helps us to define independence of events and differently from the situation in the classical theory of probability, if an event…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Andrei Khrenikov , Olga Nánásiová

In the context of computer models, calibration is the process of estimating unknown simulator parameters from observational data. Calibration is variously referred to as model fitting, parameter estimation/inference, an inverse problem, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-16 Richard D. Wilkinson , Christopher W. Lanyon

One goal in Bayesian machine learning is to encode prior knowledge into prior distributions, to model data efficiently. We consider prior knowledge from systems of linear partial differential equations together with their boundary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Markus Lange-Hegermann

Bayesian networks provide an elegant formalism for representing and reasoning about uncertainty using probability theory. Theyare a probabilistic extension of propositional logic and, hence, inherit some of the limitations of propositional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Kristian Kersting , Luc De Raedt

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

Conditional distributions, as defined by the Markov category framework, are studied in the setting of matrix algebras (quantum systems). Their construction as linear unital maps are obtained via a categorical Bayesian inversion procedure.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-09-14 Arthur J. Parzygnat