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Accurate probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices is critical for market participants to inform trading decisions. Existing studies rely on specific domain features, such as Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and the last…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-17 Runyao Yu , Ruochen Wu , Yongsheng Han , Jochen L. Cremer

The energy system in Germany consists of a large number of distributed facilities, including millions of PV plants, wind turbines, and biomass plants. To understand and manage this system efficiently, accurate and reliable information about…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-13 Florian Kotthoff , Christoph Muschner , Deniz Tepe , Esther Vogt , Ludwig Hülk

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) creates a complex challenge for the interconnected European electricity market. Traditional static analyses often miss the cross-border spillover effects that are vital for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Jiachen Shen , Jian Shi , Dan Wang , Han Zhu

Wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors, and inter-regional trade in electricity is growing. To model this, we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation, where constraints on…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-04-24 Michael Stanley Smith , Thomas S. Shively

Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-05 Thordis Thorarinsdottir , Anders Løland , Alex Lenkoski

Shift of the power system generation from the fossil to the variable renewable sources prompted the system operators to search for new sources of flexibility, that is, new reserve providers. With the introduction of electric vehicles, smart…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-22 Ivan Pavić , Hrvoje Pandžić , Tomislav Capuder

The energy transition will lead to an imbalance in electric power generation and demand along the north-south axis of Germany. To manage this imbalance, the transmission system operators proposed a network development plan that requires…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-09-08 Matthias Hotz , Irina Boiarchuk , Dominic Hewes , Rolf Witzmann , Wolfgang Utschick

This working paper presents a comprehensive study on the development and analysis of various electricity market models, focusing on continuous, discrete, and fractional-order approaches. The continuous model captures the ongoing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-29 Ioannis Dassios

The accurate prediction of short-term electricity prices is vital for effective trading strategies, power plant scheduling, profit maximisation and efficient system operation. However, uncertainties in supply and demand make such…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-20 Mira Watermeyer , Thomas Möbius , Oliver Grothe , Felix Müsgens

In this article, a multiple split method is proposed that enables construction of multidimensional probabilistic forecasts of a selected set of variables. The method uses repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-11 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Weronika Nitka

The problem of dynamic pricing of electricity in a retail market is considered. A Stackelberg game is used to model interactions between a retailer and its customers; the retailer sets the day-ahead hourly price of electricity and consumers…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Liyan Jia , Lang Tong

This paper addresses the question of how much to bid to maximize the profit when trading in two electricity markets: the hourly Day-Ahead Auction and the quarter-hourly Intraday Auction. For optimal coordinated bidding many price scenarios…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-27 Michał Narajewski , Florian Ziel

The application of the flow tracing method to power flows in and out of storage units allows to analyse the usage of this technology option in large-scale interconnected electricity systems. We apply this method to a data-driven model of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-10-26 Bo Tranberg , Mirko Schäfer , Tom Brown , Jonas Hörsch , Martin Greiner

Electric vehicles are booming and with them the required public charging stations. Knowing how charging stations are used is crucial for operators of the charging stations themselves, navigation systems, electricity grids, and many more.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-22 Christopher Hecht , Jan Figgener , Dirk Uwe Sauer

The ongoing transformation of the European energy landscape, driven by the integration of renewable energy sources, digital technologies, and decentralized systems, requires a high degree of interoperability across diverse components and…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Thomas I. Strasser , Edmund Widl , Carlos Ayon Mac Gregor , Mirko Ginocchi , Rene Kuchenbuch

Germany has become a major country of immigration, as well as a research powerhouse in Europe. As Germany spends a higher fraction of its GDP on research and development than most countries with advanced economies, there is an expectation…

Digital Libraries · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Xinyi Zhao , Samin Aref , Emilio Zagheni , Guy Stecklov

The large-scale deployment of wind power is central to Europe`s energy transition but faces challenges due to its social and environmental impacts on communities. Here we assess how the tolerance of local stakeholders to such impacts…

Import and export of fossil energy carriers are cornerstones of energy systems world-wide. If energy systems are to become climate neutral and sustainable, fossil carriers need to be substituted with carbon neutral alternatives or…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-14 Johannes Hampp , Michael Düren , Tom Brown

The interdependent nature of the global economy has become stronger with increases in international trade and investment. We propose a new model to reconstruct the international trade network and associated cost network by maximizing…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-06-05 Yuichi Ikeda , Hiroshi Iyetomi

Solar prosumers, residential electricity consumers equipped with photovoltaic (PV) systems and battery storage, are transforming electricity markets. Their interactions with the transmission grid under varying tariff designs are not yet…